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May 24, 2026, 08:04 AM
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This final Serie A match pits a Napoli side motivated to secure second place against a confident, mid-table Udinese who famously beat them 1-0 in their last encounter. The atmosphere will be charged not just by league standing, but by coach Antonio Conte's impending departure from Napoli.
Home Motivation
High
Napoli has already qualified for the Champions League but is motivated to secure a top-two finish in Serie A for a better seeding position, needing at least a draw to achieve this.
Away Motivation
Low
Udinese is in a mid-table position with nothing left to play for in terms of European qualification or relegation, but they aim to finish the campaign on a high note and potentially improve their league position.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.20
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
-0.14
Napoli shows a positive xG difference of 0.20 per game in recent form, indicating they create more quality chances than they concede, unlike Udinese's negative -0.14. This suggests Napoli is more likely to outproduce their opponents.
1.60
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.32
Napoli's attack is trending at 1.60 goals per game in recent form, significantly outscoring Udinese's 1.32 goals per game. This offensive output difference is crucial for match outcome.
60%
Possession %
All comps (EWMA)
47%
Napoli dominates possession with 60% in recent matches, well above Udinese's 47%. This control allows Napoli to dictate tempo and build attacks more effectively.
5.67
Corners won per game
All comps (EWMA)
4.61
Napoli averages 5.67 corners won per game on a recent-form basis, creating more set-piece opportunities than Udinese's 4.61. This could lead to more goal threats from dead-ball situations.
3.28
Shots on target against
All comps (EWMA)
3.70
Napoli concedes fewer shots on target per game (3.28) in recent form compared to Udinese (3.70), highlighting Napoli's better defensive solidity and ability to limit dangerous attempts from opponents.
Form & Streaks
Napoli have won 6 of their last 10 Serie A home matches (6W,2D,2L in 10), indicating strong performance at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Udinese has won 5 of their last 10 Serie A away matches (5W,2D,3L in 10), showing their capability to perform on the road.
Both Napoli and Udinese have seen Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 10 respective Serie A home/away matches, suggesting a propensity for higher-scoring games.
Tactical Overview
Napoli comes into this final fixture needing a draw to guarantee second place, despite having already secured Champions League football. Their recent Serie A home form has been solid, with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 league matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, scoring 16 goals and conceding 10. Manager Antonio Conte's confirmed exit after this game adds an unpredictable layer, potentially inspiring a strong send-off performance. On the other side, Udinese, under newly crowned Serie A Manager of the Month Kosta Runjaic, arrives without pressure in 10th place, enjoying strong recent away form with 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 10 Serie A away games, netting 18 goals. Despite Udinese's 1-0 win in their last head-to-head, Napoli holds a better recent-form xG difference of 0.20 compared to Udinese's -0.14, suggesting they generally create more quality chances.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Napoli lean on Rasmus Højlund in attack, Scott McTominay in midfield, Alessandro Buongiorno at the back, with Vanja Milinković-Savić in goal.
Absences
R. Lukaku
Hip Injury
David Neres
Ankle Injury
Home
Key Players
Napoli lean on Rasmus Højlund in attack, Scott McTominay in midfield, Alessandro Buongiorno at the back, with Vanja Milinković-Savić in goal.
Absences
R. Lukaku
Hip Injury
David Neres
Ankle Injury
Away
Key Players
Udinese lean on Arthur Atta and Kingsley Ehizibue in midfield, Thomas Kristensen at the back, with Maduka Okoye in goal.
Absences
J. Arizala
Injury
J. Ekkelenkamp
Leg Injury
H. Kamara
Yellow Cards
N. Zaniolo
Back Injury
A. Zanoli
Knee Injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
A. Zanotti
16 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
3.9
▼
avg 3.9
Referee A. Zanotti has overseen 16 matches this season across all competitions and averages 3.87 cards per game, which is essentially on par with the league average of 3.9 cards. Given the low confidence in the data, it's best to consider Zanotti an average strictness referee. This suggests the match is unlikely to be heavily influenced by an overly lenient or strict officiating style regarding cards, keeping card totals close to the league average unless the game itself becomes particularly fractious.
Weather & Field
Good Conditions
26C
Temperature
25.7°C
Rain Chance
0%
Wind
14 km/h
Humidity
50%
The weather conditions in Naples, with a sunny 26°C and a moderate wind of 14 km/h (gusts up to 23 km/h), are not expected to significantly impact the flow or style of play. The alert level is 'no_impact,' so bettors should not factor weather into their considerations for goals, corners, or cards.
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