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Away Favored
May 24, 2026, 02:02 PM
16+ Portals
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Relegated Hellas Verona hosts their final Serie A fixture as they look to salvage some pride against an AS Roma side that must win to secure Champions League qualification. The motivation gap is immense as the Giallorossi enter the Bentegodi needing three points to lock down a top-four finish.
Home Motivation
Low
Hellas Verona is mathematically relegated and has no structural stakes remaining, though they aim to finish the season with a positive result for their fans.
Away Motivation
High
AS Roma is highly motivated as they sit in 3rd place, level on points with 4th and only 2 points ahead of 5th/6th; they must win to secure Champions League football.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.85
xG created per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.53
Roma creates nearly double the quality of chances per game in recent form compared to the hosts
0.60
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.93
Verona's scoring rate is well below the league average of 2.43, while Roma is trending toward two goals per game
0.44
Points Per Game (Season at Venue)
Season avg
1.56
Verona averages less than half a point per game at home this season
75%
Pass accuracy %
All comps (EWMA)
84%
Roma's technical superiority is evident in their ball retention and build-up play
40%
Possession %
All comps (EWMA)
54%
Roma is expected to dominate the ball and dictate the tempo in recent-form comparisons
Form & Streaks
Hellas Verona is winless in their last 10 matches at home across all competitions (0W, 2D, 8L).
AS Roma has won 6 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Hellas Verona has managed only 1 win in their last 10 league matches (1W, 3D, 6L).
AS Roma has taken 3 victories in their last 5 head-to-head encounters against Verona.
Tactical Overview
The tactical disparity is highlighted by Hellas Verona's dismal home form, where they have failed to win any of their last 10 matches at the Bentegodi (0W, 2D, 8L in all competitions). Their offense is struggling significantly, trending at 0.60 goals scored per game in recent form compared to the league average of 2.43. AS Roma arrives having won 6 of their last 10 Serie A matches, including a 2-0 victory over Lazio and a dominant 4-0 win against Fiorentina. While Roma is without Pellegrini and Ndicka, they still maintain a technical edge with a 54% possession rate in recent matches. Kieron Bowie has been the sole threat for the hosts, scoring their last four goals, but he will be isolated against Mario Hermoso and a Roma backline that concedes just 0.94 xG per game on a recent-form basis.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Hellas Verona lean on Kieron Bowie in attack, Victor Nelsson and Andrias Edmundsson at the back, with Lorenzo Montipò in goal.
Absences
R. Gagliardini
Yellow Cards
D. Mosquera
Knee Injury
G. Orban
Inactive
D. Oyegoke
Injury
J. Peci
Injury
S. Serdar
Knee Injury
Home
Key Players
Hellas Verona lean on Kieron Bowie in attack, Victor Nelsson and Andrias Edmundsson at the back, with Lorenzo Montipò in goal.
Absences
R. Gagliardini
Yellow Cards
D. Mosquera
Knee Injury
G. Orban
Inactive
D. Oyegoke
Injury
J. Peci
Injury
S. Serdar
Knee Injury
Away
Key Players
AS Roma lean on Donyell Malen in attack, Bryan Cristante in midfield, Mario Hermoso at the back, with Mile Svilar in goal.
Absences
E. Ferguson
Ankle Injury
E. Ndicka
Thigh Injury
L. Pellegrini
Thigh Injury
K. Tsimikas
Illness
Wesley Franca
Red Card
B. Zaragoza
Knee Injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
S. Sozza
16 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
4.2
▲
avg 3.9
Fouls/G
25.7
▲
avg 25.4
Pen Rate
0.44
Very HighS. Sozza has been slightly stricter than the league average, issuing 4.2 cards per game across 16 Serie A matches this season compared to the 3.9 average. With Verona averaging 15.53 fouls per game in recent form, their physical approach to stopping Roma's counters could lead to multiple bookings.
Key Note
awards penalties at 0.44/game.
Weather & Field
Good Conditions
26C
Temperature
26.4°C
Rain Chance
0%
Wind
3 km/h
Humidity
51%
Clear conditions with temperatures at 26.4°C and negligible wind of 3 km/h provide a perfect platform for high-quality football. These conditions do not favor the physical, disruptive style of Verona and should allow Roma's technical players to maintain high pass accuracy.
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