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Home Favored
Jun 9, 2026, 06:02 PM
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Relegation-threatened Maardu visit an Elva side looking to solidify their place in the top half of Esiliiga A. While Maardu has shown resilience on the road, Elva boasts a strong home record that gives them the edge.
Home Motivation
Medium
Away Motivation
Medium
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.71
Points Per Game (League At Venue)
League venue (last 10)
0.71
Elva averages 1.8 PPG in league home matches compared to Maardu's 1.1 PPG away, indicating Elva's stronger performance in this specific split.
1.63
Goals scored per game (EWMA)
All comps (EWMA)
1.03
Elva scores significantly more goals per game (1.63 vs 1.03) on a recent-form basis, suggesting greater attacking threat.
30%
Win rate % (All comps)
All comps (last 10)
30%
Both Elva and Maardu have identical 30% win rates over their last 10 matches in all competitions, signalling similar recent form across samples.
1.68
Goals conceded per game (EWMA)
All comps (EWMA)
1.88
Elva concedes fewer goals per game (1.68 vs 1.88) on a recent-form basis, pointing to a slightly more solid defence.
40%
Clean sheet % (League At Venue)
League venue (last 10)
30%
Elva has kept a clean sheet in 40% of their league home matches over the last 10, compared to Maardu's 30% away, highlighting Elva's better defensive solidity at home.
60%
Loss rate % (All comps)
All comps (last 10)
30%
Elva has a high 60% loss rate in their last 10 all-competition matches, whereas Maardu has only lost 30%, indicating Maardu's greater stability in avoiding defeats.
Form & Streaks
Elva has won 6 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, a significant positive for their home advantage.
Maardu has drawn 4 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, indicating a tendency for tight games.
Elva has lost 4 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, showing vulnerability despite their overall strong home record.
Maardu has lost 5 of their last 10 away league matches, highlighting struggles to secure wins on the road.
Tactical Overview
Elva enters this fixture as the clear home favorite, underscored by their commanding 60% win rate in their last 10 Esiliiga A home matches, compared to Maardu's 30% away win rate in the same scope. In their last 10 league home games, Elva has managed 1.8 points per game, a stark contrast to Maardu's 1.1 PPG away from home. Elva's recent form has been inconsistent overall, with a 30% win rate across their last 10 all-competition matches, while Maardu has drawn 4 of their last 10, indicating a tendency for close contests. However, when assessing league-specific venue form, Elva has conceded 1.3 goals per game at home over their last 10, a figure Maardu has matched on the road despite their struggles to convert wins. Despite Maardu holding an edge in recent head-to-head encounters with 4 wins from 5, Elva claimed the most recent 3-0 victory.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Elva will likely rely on the defensive stability provided by K. Kruus. In midfield, Kevon Evans and Kevin Burov are expected to be influential in creating opportunities and driving the team forward.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Home
Key Players
Elva will likely rely on the defensive stability provided by K. Kruus. In midfield, Kevon Evans and Kevin Burov are expected to be influential in creating opportunities and driving the team forward.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Away
Key Players
No specific key players for Maardu can be identified from the latest available information.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Insider Intel