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Balanced
May 26, 2026, 02:08 AM
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This Suomen Cup Round of 16 tie sees Mariehamn host Lahti in a fixture that's difficult to call on paper. Both sides met just two weeks ago in league play with the spoils shared, and with qualification for the next round on the line, expect a tight, cagey affair.
Home Motivation
Medium
Away Motivation
Medium
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
-0.20
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
0.37
Lahti has a significantly better xG difference on a recent-form basis (+0.37) compared to Mariehamn (-0.20), indicating they are creating more high-quality chances than they are conceding, whereas Mariehamn is net negative.
1.36
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.26
Lahti has a slightly better recent-form average for goals conceded per game (1.26) than Mariehamn (1.36), suggesting a more solid defensive structure recently.
7.22
Total shots per game
All comps (EWMA)
10.88
Lahti's recent-form average of 10.88 total shots per game is substantially higher than Mariehamn's 7.22, indicating a more dominant offensive presence and higher volume of attacking play.
6.21
Shots on target against
All comps (EWMA)
2.56
Lahti's defense is considerably more robust in terms of shots on target conceded on a recent-form basis, allowing just 2.56 per game compared to Mariehamn's 6.21, making Mariehamn significantly more vulnerable to shots on goal.
6.54
Corners conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
3.40
Lahti is far superior in managing corners, conceding only 3.40 per game on a recent-form basis, while Mariehamn concedes a high 6.54, suggesting Lahti controls defensive areas more effectively and limits opposition set-piece opportunities.
4.62
GK saves per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.56
Mariehamn's goalkeeper faces significantly more action, making 4.62 saves per game on a recent-form basis, highlighting the volume of shots faced, whereas Lahti's keeper is tested far less frequently (1.56 saves).
Form & Streaks
Mariehamn has an impressive home record in their last 10 across all competitions: 4 wins and 5 draws, losing only once.
Lahti has struggled away from home in their last 10 across all comps, with 5 losses and only 3 wins.
Mariehamn has only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Lahti has a 0% clean sheet rate in their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Tactical Overview
The recent 1-1 draw between Mariehamn and Lahti in league play two weeks ago sets the stage for a closely contested cup tie. Lahti carries a slight edge in recent form, evidenced by their better points-per-game (1.4 vs 1.2) over the last 10 games across all competitions and a superior Elo rating of 1500 to Mariehamn's 1419. Lahti also boasts a more potent attack on a recent-form basis, creating 1.64 xG per game compared to Mariehamn's 1.39, and a stronger xG difference of +0.37 versus Mariehamn's -0.20. Defensively, Lahti appears more solid too, conceding 1.27 xG per game and 1.26 actual goals on a recent-form basis, which is better than Mariehamn's concessions. However, Mariehamn has been significantly tougher to beat at home in recent times, going 4 wins and 5 draws in their last 10 matches at their venue, conceding only 9 goals in that span. Lahti, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, losing five of their last ten away fixtures. The head-to-head record is tight, with Lahti holding a slight advantage with two wins to Mariehamn's one in their last five encounters, including the recent draw.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
For Mariehamn, key players expected to feature include defender Yeboah Amankwah and midfielder Emmanuel Patut, both regular starters who provide stability and drive. Defender Pontus Lindgren and midfielder Noah Nurmi are also anticipated to play crucial roles in controlling the flow of the game.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Home
Key Players
For Mariehamn, key players expected to feature include defender Yeboah Amankwah and midfielder Emmanuel Patut, both regular starters who provide stability and drive. Defender Pontus Lindgren and midfielder Noah Nurmi are also anticipated to play crucial roles in controlling the flow of the game.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Away
Key Players
No specific information on key available players for Lahti has been reported in the fresh search results. However, based on general match data, regular starters like goalkeeper Osku Maukonen, defender José Müller, and midfielders Tòfol Montiel and Yohan Cassubie are typically influential players for the team.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
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