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Game Intelligence
Away Favored
May 25, 2026, 06:00 AM
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This Premiership Final sees ST Mirren host Partick just days after their 1-1 draw, with Partick seeking to cap an impressive run that has them undefeated in their last ten matches across all competitions.
Home Motivation
Medium
ST Mirren is mathematically safe from relegation, finishing 10th in the Premiership. With the league season concluded for them, they have no further stakes in this competition.
Away Motivation
High
Partick has had a successful season, reaching the Premiership playoffs and the Scottish Cup Final. Their motivation is primarily focused on achieving promotion to the Premiership, with this match being part of their playoff journey.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.97
xG created per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.21
Partick's ability to generate better quality chances, evidenced by their 1.21 xG created per game in recent form, suggests they are more likely to breach ST Mirren's defense than vice versa (0.97 xG).
-0.11
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
0.40
Partick's positive xG difference of 0.40 in recent form indicates a strong balance between creating and denying chances, a stark contrast to ST Mirren's negative -0.11, highlighting Partick's overall dominance.
0.80
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.45
Partick's recent-form average of 1.45 goals per game is significantly higher than ST Mirren's 0.80, suggesting Partick poses a much greater attacking threat in this final.
1.41
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
0.95
Partick's defense has been tighter, conceding 0.95 goals per game on a recent-form basis compared to ST Mirren's 1.41, giving them a defensive edge in a high-stakes match.
1.1
PPG (3/1/0)
All comps (last 10 matches)
1.8
Partick's superior 1.8 PPG in their last 10 all-competition matches against ST Mirren's 1.1 highlights their stronger recent momentum and ability to grind out results.
50%
Loss rate %
All comps (last 10 matches)
0%
Partick's 0% loss rate in their last 10 all-competition matches compared to ST Mirren's 50% loss rate demonstrates Partick's resilience and capacity to avoid defeat when it matters.
Form & Streaks
Partick are undefeated in their last 10 matches across all competitions, recording 4 wins and 6 draws.
ST Mirren have lost 5 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, indicating a dip in form.
ST Mirren have won just 2 of their last 10 Premiership matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5.
Partick have drawn 6 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, showcasing their resilience.
Tactical Overview
ST Mirren, with their Premiership safety secured, face a Partick side riding a wave of momentum and confidence as they pursue playoff promotion. While the hosts will look to defensive stalwarts Miguel Freckleton and Alex Gogić to provide a foundation, their recent form shows a struggle for goals, trending at just 0.80 goals per game on a recent-form basis. Partick, under the leadership of Neil Lennon, has been far more prolific, scoring 1.45 goals per game in recent form and boasting a significantly superior xG difference of 0.40. Midfield maestro Mark O'Hara and attacking threat Killian Phillips are crucial for ST Mirren, but Partick's creative force Aidan Fitzpatrick and the dependable Robbie Crawford in midfield suggest they hold the tactical edge, especially given their clean sheet percentage of 30% in recent matches. The 1-1 draw just four days ago sets the stage for a potentially cagey affair.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
ST Mirren will rely on the defensive solidity of Miguel Freckleton and Alex Gogić to hold strong at the back. In midfield, Mark O'Hara provides experience and control, while Killian Phillips is a key presence in attack, having scored in the previous leg of this playoff. Mikael Mandron is also a significant attacking threat for the team.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Home
Key Players
ST Mirren will rely on the defensive solidity of Miguel Freckleton and Alex Gogić to hold strong at the back. In midfield, Mark O'Hara provides experience and control, while Killian Phillips is a key presence in attack, having scored in the previous leg of this playoff. Mikael Mandron is also a significant attacking threat for the team.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Away
Key Players
Partick will look to Aidan Fitzpatrick for creative spark and goals, as he has been a prolific player for them this season. In defense, Lee Ashcroft and Cale Loughrey are expected to anchor the backline. Robbie Crawford is a vital part of the midfield, providing energy and distribution. Alex Samuel is a key forward who can threaten the opposition's goal.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
N. Walsh
24 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
4.3
▼
avg 4.3
Fouls/G
25.9
▲
avg 24.2
Pen Rate
0.21
NormalReferee N. Walsh averages 4.29 cards per game across 24 Premiership matches this season, which is almost perfectly in line with the league average of 4.32 cards per game. This suggests an average strictness level. Given both teams' recent-form yellow card averages (ST Mirren 1.76, Partick 1.00), Walsh's consistent approach means he is unlikely to be a significant factor in pushing the game's card count either way, making the Over/Under card lines likely to reflect team tendencies rather than referee influence.
Weather & Field
Good Conditions
21C
Temperature
21°C
Rain Chance
0%
Wind
8 km/h
Humidity
59%
The sunny conditions with a mild 21°C temperature and light 8 km/h wind (gusts up to 19 km/h) are ideal for football. There should be no significant impact on either team's playing style or the game flow, meaning conditions will not push betting markets towards more or fewer goals, corners, or cards.
Insider Intel