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Away Favored
May 26, 2026, 02:01 PM
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SpVgg Greuther Fürth fights for their 2. Bundesliga life at the Sportpark Ronhof, needing to overturn a 1-0 aggregate deficit against a surging Rot-Weiß Essen side. The visitors are on the brink of a historic return to the second tier for the first time since 2007, carrying immense momentum from their first-leg triumph.
Home Motivation
High
SpVgg Greuther Fürth has maximum motivation as they face a must-win situation at home to preserve their status in the second division and avoid their first relegation to the third tier since 1997.
Away Motivation
High
Rot-Weiß Essen is highly motivated to secure promotion, needing only a draw to complete their return to the 2. Bundesliga after nearly two decades in the lower leagues.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.44
xG created per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.00
The visitors are creating significantly higher quality chances in recent form, nearly doubling their recent-form goal output compared to the hosts.
3.99
Shots on target per game
All comps (EWMA)
5.75
Recent-form averages show Essen tests the keeper more frequently than Fürth, which aligns with their higher goal-scoring rate.
1.1
Points Per Game (Last 10)
Last 10 matches
2.1
There is a massive gap in momentum, with Essen nearly doubling the points-per-game haul of Fürth over the last ten matches.
5.14
Corners won per game
All comps (EWMA)
4.78
On a recent-form basis, Fürth wins more corners, which could be a factor given Essen's tendency to concede 5.91 corners per game.
1379
Elo rating
Season avg
1489
Despite playing in a lower division, Essen holds a superior Elo rating, reflecting their dominance and consistency this season.
Form & Streaks
Rot-Weiß Essen has won 7 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth has lost 5 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Rot-Weiß Essen has seen Both Teams to Score in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
Tactical Overview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth enters this second leg relying heavily on their home form, having secured a dominant 3-0 win over Fortuna Düsseldorf recently at this venue. However, their overall form is concerning with five losses in their last ten matches, including the 1-0 defeat in the first leg four days ago. Rot-Weiß Essen arrives in blistering form, having won 7 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, underpinned by a recent-form xG of 2.00 per game. While Fürth will look to Noel Futkeu and Branimir Hrgota to break down a defense led by José-Enrique Ríos Alonso, the hosts must fix a glaring set-piece vulnerability; they conceded nine goals from corners during the season, while Essen leads the 3. Liga with 21 goals from dead-ball situations. The loss of Klaus Gjasula to an ankle injury is a blow to the visitors' midfield stability, but Torben Müsel-who scored the first-leg winner-remains the primary threat after netting six times in his last eight appearances.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
SpVgg Greuther Fürth will rely on the attacking prowess of Noel Futkeu, who is crucial for creating scoring opportunities. Midfielder Felix Klaus is expected to contribute to the team's build-up play, while Branimir Hrgota offers experience and leadership in the attack. Defensively, Jan Elvedi and Philipp Ziereis are key to maintaining a solid backline.
Absences
Marco John
fracture of fibula shaft
Lukas Reich
muscle injury
Reno Münz
muscular issues
Home
Key Players
SpVgg Greuther Fürth will rely on the attacking prowess of Noel Futkeu, who is crucial for creating scoring opportunities. Midfielder Felix Klaus is expected to contribute to the team's build-up play, while Branimir Hrgota offers experience and leadership in the attack. Defensively, Jan Elvedi and Philipp Ziereis are key to maintaining a solid backline.
Absences
Marco John
fracture of fibula shaft
Lukas Reich
muscle injury
Reno Münz
muscular issues
Away
Key Players
Rot-Weiß Essen's defense will be marshaled by José-Enrique Ríos Alonso. In midfield, Torben Müsel is a vital presence, capable of impacting the game with his contributions. Jakob Golz is expected to be in goal, providing a reliable last line of defense.
Absences
Klaus Gjasula
torn ankle ligaments
Franci Bouebari
torn muscle bundle
Jannik Mause
elbow injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
R. Schroder
16 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
4.6
▼
avg 4.8
Fouls/G
24.4
▼
avg 24.5
Pen Rate
0.56
Very HighR. Schroder has officiated 16 matches across all competitions this season, averaging 4.62 cards per game, which is slightly below the league average of 4.78. His high penalty rate of 0.56 per match is the key factor here, especially considering Rot-Weiß Essen's aggressive attacking style and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's pressure to overturn the aggregate deficit.
Key Note
awards penalties at 0.56/game.
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