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Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus - 1X2 Stats & Probability Analysis

Win Draw Win Probability Models & Match Outcome Analysis

Japan

Japan

J1 League

Machida Zelvia

D
W
D
D
W
W

06 Jun 2026

06:00 (UTC+0)

(0
-
0)

2

-

1

2-1

AET

Nagoya Grampus

D
L
L
W
W
W

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds & Probability

Fulltime

Home

2.13
-

Draw

3.25
-

Away

3.42
-

1st Half

Home

2.73
-

Draw

2.05
-

Away

4.09
-

2nd Half

Home

2.50
-

Draw

2.30
-

Away

3.65
-

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MATCH EVIDENCE

Form & Performance

Japan

J1 League

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

77%

17%

83%

33%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

80%

58%

67%

44%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

78%

55%

65%

50%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

67%

62%

68%

48%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

71%

60%

61%

55%

Home only

Away only

Total Goals

average per game

Japan

J1 League

Good
Attack
Excellent
Excellent
Defense
Poor

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

+0.83
1.33
0.5

Scored

Conceded

2
2.33

Difference

-0.33

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.17
0.83
0.67

Scored

Conceded

2.17
1

Difference

+1.17

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

+0.75
1.25
0.5

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.75

Difference

+0.12

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.15
1.25
1.1

Scored

Conceded

1.7
1.5

Difference

+0.2

Season

Full season averages

Difference

+0.21
1.32
1.11

Scored

Conceded

1.74
1.58

Difference

+0.16

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Home vs Away Strength

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Total Goals

average per game

Japan

J1 League

Good
Attack
Excellent
Excellent
Defense
Poor

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

+0.83
1.33
0.5

Scored

Conceded

2
2.33

Difference

-0.33

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.17
0.83
0.67

Scored

Conceded

2.17
1

Difference

+1.17

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

+0.75
1.25
0.5

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.75

Difference

+0.12

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.15
1.25
1.1

Scored

Conceded

1.7
1.5

Difference

+0.2

Season

Full season averages

Difference

+0.21
1.32
1.11

Scored

Conceded

1.74
1.58

Difference

+0.16

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Form & Performance

Japan

J1 League

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

77%

17%

83%

33%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

80%

58%

67%

44%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

78%

55%

65%

50%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

67%

62%

68%

48%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

71%

60%

61%

55%

Home only

Away only

Home vs Away Strength

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HEAD TO HEAD

Head to Head

Last 365 days

2 Matches

(50%)

1

Wins

Draws: 1

0

(0%)

1

(50%)

1

(50%)

Avg Goals per Match

2.5
1.5

Scored

Conceded

1.5
2.5

Machida Zelvia

Nagoya Grampus

All Matches

8 Matches

(63%)

5

Wins

Draws: 1

2

(25%)

5

(63%)

1

(13%)

2

(25%)

Avg Goals per Match

1.75
1.25

Scored

Conceded

1.25
1.75

Machida Zelvia

Nagoya Grampus

Japan | J1 League

30 May 26

Nagoya Grampus

2
2

Machida Zelvia

7d ago

Japan | J1 League

30 Nov 25

Machida Zelvia

3
1

Nagoya Grampus

6mo ago

Japan | J1 League

02 Mar 25

Nagoya Grampus

1
2

Machida Zelvia

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05

Home

1:0

22/05

23/05
24/05
25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05

Away

2:2

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06

Home

AET

06/06

07/06
08/06
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
13/06
14/06

Head to Head

Last 365 days

2 Matches

(50%)

1

Wins

Draws: 1

0

(0%)

1

(50%)

1

(50%)

Avg Goals per Match

2.5
1.5

Scored

Conceded

1.5
2.5

Machida Zelvia

Nagoya Grampus

All Matches

8 Matches

(63%)

5

Wins

Draws: 1

2

(25%)

5

(63%)

1

(13%)

2

(25%)

Avg Goals per Match

1.75
1.25

Scored

Conceded

1.25
1.75

Machida Zelvia

Nagoya Grampus

Japan | J1 League

30 May 26

Nagoya Grampus

2
2

Machida Zelvia

7d ago

Japan | J1 League

30 Nov 25

Machida Zelvia

3
1

Nagoya Grampus

6mo ago

Japan | J1 League

02 Mar 25

Nagoya Grampus

1
2

Machida Zelvia

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05

Home

1:0

22/05

23/05
24/05
25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05

Away

2:2

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06

Home

AET

06/06

07/06
08/06
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
13/06
14/06

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Competition

Period

Side

FT/HT

MATCH EVIDENCE

Goals History

Machida Zelvia

Nagoya Grampus

Last Matches (1X2)

Fulltime

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Japan

Japan | J1 League

AET

06/06

06:00

Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
1

H

2.13

D

3.25

A

3.42

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

30/05

05:00

Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

22/05

10:30

Machida Zelvia
Urawa
1
0

H

2.33

D

2.98

A

3.22

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

17/05

10:00

Kawasaki Frontale
Machida Zelvia
1
1

H

3.00

D

3.21

A

2.34

D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

13/05

10:00

Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
0
0

H

1.91

D

3.05

A

4.57

D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

10/05

08:00

JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
0
2

H

4.28

D

3.38

A

1.84

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/05

07:00

Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
0

H

1.75

D

3.55

A

4.58

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Machida Zelvia

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Japan

Japan | J1 League

AET

06/06

06:00

Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
1

H

2.13

D

3.25

A

3.42

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

30/05

05:00

Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

22/05

10:30

Machida Zelvia
Urawa
1
0

H

2.33

D

2.98

A

3.22

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

17/05

10:00

Kawasaki Frontale
Machida Zelvia
1
1

H

3.00

D

3.21

A

2.34

D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

13/05

10:00

Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
0
0

H

1.91

D

3.05

A

4.57

D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

10/05

08:00

JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
0
2

H

4.28

D

3.38

A

1.84

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/05

07:00

Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
0

H

1.75

D

3.55

A

4.58

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Nagoya Grampus

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Japan

Japan | J1 League

AET

06/06

06:00

Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
1

H

2.13

D

3.25

A

3.42

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

30/05

05:00

Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

23/05

05:00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
4
2

H

1.72

D

3.85

A

4.37

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

17/05

06:00

Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1

H

2.32

D

3.42

A

2.85

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

10/05

07:00

Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0

H

1.93

D

3.50

A

3.72

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/05

05:00

Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1

H

2.20

D

3.44

A

3.03

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

03/05

08:00

V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2

H

3.24

D

3.38

A

2.14

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Lineups

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 4.11 per game

High Team Rotation!
Frequent lineup changes help manage fatigue but may disrupt team chemistry

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

27

Erik

6.3
M

7

Yuki Soma

6.5
M

9

Shota Fujio

6.7
H

Midfielders

88

Hotaka Nakamura

6.2
M

23

Ryohei Shirasaki

6.9
H

16

Hiroyuki Mae

6.2
M

26

Kotaro Hayashi

7.2
H

Defenders

3

Gen Shoji

6.9
M

50

Daihachi Okamura

6.7
L

19

Yuta Nakayama

7.3
M

Goalkeepers

1

Kosei Tani

7.2
L

Machida Zelvia

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 4.11 per game

High Team Rotation!
Frequent lineup changes help manage fatigue but may disrupt team chemistry

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

27

Erik

6.3
M

7

Yuki Soma

6.5
M

9

Shota Fujio

6.7
H

Midfielders

88

Hotaka Nakamura

6.2
M

23

Ryohei Shirasaki

6.9
H

16

Hiroyuki Mae

6.2
M

26

Kotaro Hayashi

7.2
H

Defenders

3

Gen Shoji

6.9
M

50

Daihachi Okamura

6.7
L

19

Yuta Nakayama

7.3
M

Goalkeepers

1

Kosei Tani

7.2
L

Nagoya Grampus

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 3.11 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

7

Ryuji Izumi

6.5
L

22

Yudai Kimura

6.5
L

11

Yuya Yamagishi

6.9
L

Midfielders

9

Yuya Asano

6.5
L

14

Tsukasa Morishima

7.9
L

31

Tomoki Takamine

6.5
L

27

Katsuhiro Nakayama

7.3
L

Defenders

2

Yuki Nogami

7.3
H

13

Haruya Fujii

8.5
L

3

Yota Sato

7.5
H

Goalkeepers

1

Daniel Schmidt

7.9
L

Player Rotation Legend

L

Low

M

Medium

H

High

-

Unknown

  • Low: Regular starter with stable minutes
  • Medium: Plays regularly but role/minutes vary
  • High: Unpredictable role, often rotated or benched.

Overall Form

75%
Overall Form
55%
4
Wins
4
6
Draws
3
0
Losses
3

Rankings

Current Season

3
East
3
18
Played
18
2.06
Points per Match
1.72

Quality

69%
Team Quality
58%
57%
Avg Opponent Quality
56%

Goals Performance

60%
Goals Performance
50%
1.2
Scored Goals
1.9
0.6
Conceded Goals
2
0.6
Goals Difference
(Scored - Conceded)
-0.1
1.8
Total Goals
(Scored + Conceded)
3.9

Average Goals per Match

vs

Statistics

Average Statistics per Game

0.88
Expected Goals
Missing Data (2 | 4)
1.21
10.8
Total Shots
12.3
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.8
6.4
Shots Inside Box
8.5
4.4
Shots Outside Box
3.8
43%
Possession
53%
78%
Passes %
80%

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds Movement

All odds shown are the average odds from all bookmakers in our system.

Home

2.13

Draw

3.25

Away

3.42

2.08

Home

2.13

3.21

Draw

3.25

3.40

Away

3.53

Max

Home

2.13

Draw

3.25

Away

3.53

%

2%
1%
4%

Min

Home

2.08

Draw

3.21

Away

3.40

NOTE: Odds are updated every 3 hours.

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