xG — Expected Goals
We don't invent xG — we ingest it directly from a professional football data API used by analytics platforms across the industry. Every shot in a match is graded by their calibrated chance-quality model (location, angle, body part, build-up) and converted to a probability between 0 and 1. A team's match xG is the sum of every chance it created. When xG outpaces actual goals, finishing is the problem. When goals outpace xG, variance is being kind. It is the single cleanest one-number summary of attacking process — the same xG number every serious analyst is working from.