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Home Favored
May 31, 2026, 12:01 PM
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Almeria looks to secure third-place seeding in the promotion playoffs by capitalizing on their home fortress against a safe but struggling Valladolid. With the visitors missing key defensive anchors and showing minimal away form, the hosts are positioned to dictate this season finale.
Home Motivation
High
Almeria is highly motivated as they sit 3rd, but are only 1 or 2 points ahead of Malaga, Las Palmas, and Castellon, making a win essential to secure the highest playoff seeding.
Away Motivation
Low
Valladolid has low motivation for this fixture as they are safe in 16th place, 6 points clear of relegation and 23 points adrift of the playoffs.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.95
Goals Scored Per Game
All comps (EWMA)
1.01
Almeria is trending well above the league average of 2.64 total goals per match in recent form
2.20
Points Per Game at Venue
League venue (last 10)
0.85
Almeria's dominance at home is nearly five times more productive than Valladolid's away performance in their last 10 respective outings
5.57
Shots on Target Per Game
All comps (EWMA)
3.15
Almeria creates significantly more clear-cut chances per match on a recent-form basis
80%
Win Rate % at Venue
League venue (last 10)
10%
Almeria has won 8 of their last 10 home matches while Valladolid has only 1 win in their last 10 away matches
1.38
xG Created Per Game
All comps (EWMA)
1.13
Almeria's recent-form xG creation is superior, though both teams are below the league average of 2.80
Form & Streaks
Almeria has won 8 of their last 10 matches at home in the league (8W, 0D, 2L)
Valladolid has lost 7 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions (1W, 2D, 7L)
Almeria has seen Over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last 10 home league matches
Tactical Overview
Almeria enters the final day needing to bounce back from a 3-1 loss to Sporting Gijon to protect their playoff position. Their home form is the foundation of their promotion push, having won 8 of their last 10 league matches at the UD Almeria Stadium, including offensive clinics like the 5-1 thrashing of Real Sociedad II. Trending at 1.95 goals scored per game in recent form, Almeria possesses the firepower to overwhelm a Valladolid side that has lost 7 of its last 10 away matches. The visitors are severely depleted, missing Stanko Jurić to suspension and Sergi Canós to injury, which will likely force manager Fran Escribá into a defensive shell. While Valladolid won the previous meeting 3-1, their recent away PPG of 0.5 suggests they will struggle to contain an Almeria attack led by Sergio Arribas and Miguel de la Fuente.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Sergio Arribas is a vital attacking midfielder for Almeria, known for his ability to create chances and contribute to goals. Miguel de la Fuente provides a strong presence up front as a regular starter in attack. Álex Muñoz is a key defender, contributing to the team's defensive stability.
Absences
André Horta
undisclosed injury
Home
Key Players
Sergio Arribas is a vital attacking midfielder for Almeria, known for his ability to create chances and contribute to goals. Miguel de la Fuente provides a strong presence up front as a regular starter in attack. Álex Muñoz is a key defender, contributing to the team's defensive stability.
Absences
André Horta
undisclosed injury
Away
Key Players
Julien Ponceau is an important midfielder for Valladolid, influencing the flow of the game. In attack, Juanmi Latasa is a regular starter and a significant goal threat. Carlos Clerc is a consistent presence in the defense.
Absences
M. Lachuer
undisclosed injury
Sergi Canós
Cruciate Ligament Tear
Guille Bueno
Cruciate Ligament Tear
Juanmi Latasa
undisclosed injury
S. Jurić
disciplinary
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
M. Perez
21 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
7.6
▲
avg 5.6
Fouls/G
27.3
▲
avg 26.8
Pen Rate
0.52
Very HighM. Perez is an exceptionally strict official, averaging 7.62 cards per game across 21 Segunda División matches this season, which is 35.6% above the league average of 5.62. His tendency to issue yellows (7.14 per game) and award penalties (0.52 per game) will be critical if Almeria applies high offensive pressure on a depleted Valladolid backline.
Key Note
Runs 36% above league average on cards. awards penalties at 0.52/game.
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