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Game Intelligence
Balanced
May 31, 2026, 02:02 PM
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Survival Sunday reaches its boiling point as Leganes needs only a single point to secure their safety, while Mirandes must find a way to win at the Butarque to escape the relegation zone. It is a high-stakes finale where defensive desperation meets an all-or-nothing offensive push from the visitors.
Home Motivation
High
Leganes is fighting to avoid relegation in the final game of the season. They hold a 3-point lead over Mirandes but would lose out on head-to-head tiebreakers if they lose.
Away Motivation
High
Mirandes is in a 'must-win' scenario; victory would see them leapfrog Leganes due to a superior head-to-head record (having drawn the first leg 0-0), while any other result confirms relegation.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.6
Points Per Game (Last 10)
Last 10 matches
1.3
Mirandes has more than double the points accumulation of Leganes over the final stretch of the season
0.91
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.38
Mirandes is trending at a higher offensive output in recent form compared to the goal-shy hosts
32%
Shot accuracy %
All comps (EWMA)
40%
The visitors have been more clinical, with their 40% accuracy surpassing the Leganes recent-form average of 32%
1.61
xG created per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.23
Despite poor conversion, Leganes creates a recent-form xG of 1.61, which is higher than the Mirandes average of 1.23
82%
Pass accuracy %
All comps (EWMA)
76%
Leganes maintains better control on a recent-form basis with 82% pass accuracy compared to 76% for the visitors
1.54
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.71
Both sides struggle defensively, trending at over 1.5 goals conceded per game in recent matches
Form & Streaks
Leganes has secured only 1 victory in their last 10 Segunda División matches (1W, 3D, 6L)
Mirandes has seen both teams score in 9 of their last 10 league matches
Leganes has won 4 of their last 10 matches when playing at the Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Tactical Overview
Leganes enters this final matchday in dismal form, having managed only 1 win in their last 10 league fixtures (1W, 3D, 6L), including a heavy 4-0 defeat to FC Andorra. They have trended at a low 0.91 goals scored per game in recent form, which likely explains why new manager Carlos Martínez is expected to prioritize a rigid, set-piece focused approach to secure the necessary draw. In contrast, Mirandes has found their scoring boots under pressure, netting 17 goals in their last 10 matches compared to just 6 for the hosts. Their recent 3-1 win over Granada CF showed their ability to perform when the stakes are high, though their away record remains a concern with 6 losses in their last 10 league trips. The return of Hugo Novoa to the backline will be vital for the visitors as they attempt to stifle a Leganes attack led by Juan Cruz and Naim García.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Juan Soriano is expected to start in goal for Leganes, a crucial presence in their defensive efforts. In midfield, Amadou Diawara will be key in orchestrating play, while Juan Cruz is an influential presence in the attack. Marvel is also expected to feature in the defense, providing stability.
Absences
M. Leiva
undisclosed injury
Jorge Sáenz
undisclosed injury
Home
Key Players
Juan Soriano is expected to start in goal for Leganes, a crucial presence in their defensive efforts. In midfield, Amadou Diawara will be key in orchestrating play, while Juan Cruz is an influential presence in the attack. Marvel is also expected to feature in the defense, providing stability.
Absences
M. Leiva
undisclosed injury
Jorge Sáenz
undisclosed injury
Away
Key Players
Juanpa is expected to be in goal for Mirandes, a vital player for their backline. In defense, Fernando Medrano and Jorge Cabello are anticipated to start, providing a strong foundation. Midfielder Javier Hernandez will be crucial in creating offensive opportunities.
Absences
Siren Diao
undisclosed injury
Selvi Clúa
undisclosed injury
Ali Houary
inactive / technical decision
Alberto Marí
leg injury
Pablo Pérez
cruciate ligament tear
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
M. Orellana
21 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
7.5
▲
avg 5.6
Fouls/G
27.8
▲
avg 26.8
Pen Rate
0.48
Very HighReferee M. Orellana is exceptionally strict, averaging 7.47 cards per game across 21 Segunda División matches this season, which is well above the league average of 5.62. His tendency to award penalties (0.48 per game) and high foul count (27.8) suggests he will have a massive impact on this high-pressure relegation scrap. Given Leganes and Mirandes both average over 2.7 yellow cards per game in recent form, this official's style heavily favors a high total card count.
Key Note
Runs 33% above league average on cards. awards penalties at 0.48/game.
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