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Bahia vs Botafogo - 1X2 Stats & Probability Analysis

Win Draw Win Probability Models & Match Outcome Analysis

Brazil

Brazil

Serie A

Bahia

L
D
L
L
D
D

30 May 2026

20:30 (UTC+0)

(0
-
1)

2

-

1

FT

Botafogo

W
D
W
W
L
D

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds & Probability

Fulltime

Home

1.95
-

Draw

3.62
-

Away

3.67
-

1st Half

Home

2.45
-

Draw

2.28
-

Away

4.00
-

2nd Half

Home

2.23
-

Draw

2.63
-

Away

3.61
-

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MATCH EVIDENCE

Form & Performance

Brazil

Serie A

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

17%

77%

33%

77%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

28%

63%

50%

72%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

36%

63%

60%

50%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

57%

58%

68%

53%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

54%

52%

50%

48%

Home only

Away only

Total Goals

average per game

Brazil

Serie A

Good
Attack
Excellent
Good
Defense
Poor

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.67
1.33
2

Scored

Conceded

2
1.33

Difference

+0.67

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.5
1.67
1.17

Scored

Conceded

1.83
2

Difference

-0.17

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-0.62
1.5
2.12

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.88

Difference

0

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.1
1.35
1.25

Scored

Conceded

2.05
1.85

Difference

+0.2

Season

Full season averages

Difference

+0.06
1.44
1.38

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.81

Difference

+0.06

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Epic

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Home vs Away Strength

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Total Goals

average per game

Brazil

Serie A

Good
Attack
Excellent
Good
Defense
Poor

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.67
1.33
2

Scored

Conceded

2
1.33

Difference

+0.67

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.5
1.67
1.17

Scored

Conceded

1.83
2

Difference

-0.17

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-0.62
1.5
2.12

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.88

Difference

0

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.1
1.35
1.25

Scored

Conceded

2.05
1.85

Difference

+0.2

Season

Full season averages

Difference

+0.06
1.44
1.38

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.81

Difference

+0.06

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Epic

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Form & Performance

Brazil

Serie A

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

17%

77%

33%

77%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

28%

63%

50%

72%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

36%

63%

60%

50%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

57%

58%

68%

53%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

54%

52%

50%

48%

Home only

Away only

Home vs Away Strength

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HEAD TO HEAD

Head to Head

Last 365 days

1 Match

(0%)

0

Wins

Draws: 0

1

(100%)

1

(100%)

Avg Goals per Match

1
2

Scored

Conceded

2
1

Bahia

Botafogo

All Matches

26 Matches

(46%)

12

Wins

Draws: 6

8

(31%)

12

(46%)

6

(23%)

8

(31%)

Avg Goals per Match

1.27
1.19

Scored

Conceded

1.19
1.27

Bahia

Botafogo

Brazil | Serie A

02 Oct 25

Botafogo

2
1

Bahia

8mo ago

Brazil | Serie A

04 May 25

Bahia

1
0

Botafogo

1y ago

Brazil | Serie A

25 Aug 24

Bahia

0
0

Botafogo

2y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

11/05
12/05
13/05

Away

2:1

14/05

15/05
16/05

Home

1:1

17/05

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05
23/05
24/05

Away

3:2

25/05

26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05

Home

2:1

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06
06/06
07/06

Head to Head

Last 365 days

1 Match

(0%)

0

Wins

Draws: 0

1

(100%)

1

(100%)

Avg Goals per Match

1
2

Scored

Conceded

2
1

Bahia

Botafogo

All Matches

26 Matches

(46%)

12

Wins

Draws: 6

8

(31%)

12

(46%)

6

(23%)

8

(31%)

Avg Goals per Match

1.27
1.19

Scored

Conceded

1.19
1.27

Bahia

Botafogo

Brazil | Serie A

02 Oct 25

Botafogo

2
1

Bahia

8mo ago

Brazil | Serie A

04 May 25

Bahia

1
0

Botafogo

1y ago

Brazil | Serie A

25 Aug 24

Bahia

0
0

Botafogo

2y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

11/05
12/05
13/05

Away

2:1

14/05

15/05
16/05

Home

1:1

17/05

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05
23/05
24/05

Away

3:2

25/05

26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05

Home

2:1

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06
06/06
07/06

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Competition

Period

Side

FT/HT

MATCH EVIDENCE

Goals History

Bahia

Botafogo

Last Matches (1X2)

Fulltime

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

30/05

20:30

Bahia
Botafogo
2
1

H

1.95

D

3.62

A

3.67

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

25/05

23:00

Coritiba
Bahia
3
2

H

2.57

D

3.21

A

2.76

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

17/05

19:00

Bahia
Gremio
1
1

H

1.68

D

3.88

A

4.81

D
Brazil

Brazil | Copa Do Brasil

FT

14/05

00:30

Remo
Bahia
2
1

H

2.95

D

3.47

A

2.24

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

10/05

00:00

Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2

H

2.11

D

3.27

A

3.49

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

03/05

19:00

Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2

H

1.99

D

3.32

A

3.82

D
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

25/04

21:30

Bahia
Santos
2
2

H

1.64

D

3.82

A

5.33

D
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Bahia

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

30/05

20:30

Bahia
Botafogo
2
1

H

1.95

D

3.62

A

3.67

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

25/05

23:00

Coritiba
Bahia
3
2

H

2.57

D

3.21

A

2.76

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

17/05

19:00

Bahia
Gremio
1
1

H

1.68

D

3.88

A

4.81

D
Brazil

Brazil | Copa Do Brasil

FT

14/05

00:30

Remo
Bahia
2
1

H

2.95

D

3.47

A

2.24

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

10/05

00:00

Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2

H

2.11

D

3.27

A

3.49

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

03/05

19:00

Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2

H

1.99

D

3.32

A

3.82

D
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

25/04

21:30

Bahia
Santos
2
2

H

1.64

D

3.82

A

5.33

D
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Botafogo

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

30/05

20:30

Bahia
Botafogo
2
1

H

1.95

D

3.62

A

3.67

L
World

World | CONMEBOL Sudamericana

FT

27/05

22:00

Caracas FC
Botafogo
1
3

H

3.87

D

3.25

A

1.99

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

23/05

20:00

Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1

H

1.74

D

3.71

A

4.63

D
World

World | CONMEBOL Sudamericana

FT

21/05

00:00

Independiente Petrolero
Botafogo
0
3
W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

17/05

19:00

Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1

H

2.33

D

3.16

A

3.14

W
Brazil

Brazil | Copa Do Brasil

FT

14/05

21:00

Chapecoense-sc
Botafogo
2
0

H

3.49

D

3.25

A

2.08

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

10/05

19:00

Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1

H

2.14

D

3.34

A

3.37

D
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Lineups

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 2.44 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

16

Erick Pulga

6.9
L

12

Willian Jose

6.5
M

99

C. Olivera

6.5
M

Midfielders

14

Erick

7.9
H

8

Caio Alexandre

6.9
M

11

Rodrigo

8
H

Defenders

2

Gilberto

6.9
H

33

David Duarte

8.2
L

21

S. Ramos

6.9
M

66

Ze Guilherme

6.3
H

Goalkeepers

1

Ronaldo Strada

7.5
-
Injuries/Absence

Key Players

Leo Vieira

Injury

L

Luciano Juba

Injury

L

Nicolas Acevedo

Yellow Cards

L

Others

Ruan Pablo

Ankle Injury

-

Bahia

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 2.44 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

16

Erick Pulga

6.9
L

12

Willian Jose

6.5
M

99

C. Olivera

6.5
M

Midfielders

14

Erick

7.9
H

8

Caio Alexandre

6.9
M

11

Rodrigo

8
H

Defenders

2

Gilberto

6.9
H

33

David Duarte

8.2
L

21

S. Ramos

6.9
M

66

Ze Guilherme

6.3
H

Goalkeepers

1

Ronaldo Strada

7.5
-
Injuries/Absence

Key Players

Leo Vieira

Injury

L

Luciano Juba

Injury

L

Nicolas Acevedo

Yellow Cards

L

Others

Ruan Pablo

Ankle Injury

-

Botafogo

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 4.22 per game

High Team Rotation!
Frequent lineup changes help manage fatigue but may disrupt team chemistry

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

19

Arthur Cabral

6.2
L

Midfielders

75

Huguinho

7.6
H

6

C. Medina

6.9
L

77

L. M. Villalba Jaume

6.9
H

10

A. Montoro

6.7
M

59

Kauan Toledo

6.7
M

Defenders

4

M. Ponte

6.6
H

5

N. Ferraresi

5.9
M

34

G. Justino

6.2
H

13

Alex Telles

6.3
M

Goalkeepers

22

Neto

6.2
L
Injuries/Absence

Key Players

D. dos Santos

Inactive

M

Others

Allan

Muscle Injury

H

Bastos

Injury

H

J. Correa

Yellow Cards

H

Junior Santos

Foot Injury

H

Kaio Pantaleao

Knee Injury

-

Nathan Fernandes

Knee Injury

-

Player Rotation Legend

L

Low

M

Medium

H

High

-

Unknown

  • Low: Regular starter with stable minutes
  • Medium: Plays regularly but role/minutes vary
  • High: Unpredictable role, often rotated or benched.

Overall Form

29%
Overall Form
68%
1
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
2

Rankings

Current Season

8
Serie A
10
16
Played
16
1.44
Points per Match
1.38

Quality

42%
Team Quality
67%
57%
Avg Opponent Quality
52%

Goals Performance

32%
Goals Performance
61%
1.3
Scored Goals
1.9
2
Conceded Goals
1.1
-0.7
Goals Difference
(Scored - Conceded)
0.8
3.3
Total Goals
(Scored + Conceded)
3

Average Goals per Match

vs

Statistics

Average Statistics per Game

1.43
Expected Goals
Missing Data (2 | 1)
2.34
14.6
Total Shots
19.9
5.4
Shots on Goal
7.7
8.9
Shots Inside Box
13
5.7
Shots Outside Box
6.9
58%
Possession
54%
86%
Passes %
80%

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds Movement

All odds shown are the average odds from all bookmakers in our system.

Home

1.95

Draw

3.62

Away

3.67

1.89

Home

1.98

3.44

Draw

3.66

3.67

Away

3.89

Max

Home

1.98

Draw

3.66

Away

3.89

%

5%
6%
6%

Min

Home

1.89

Draw

3.44

Away

3.67

NOTE: Odds are updated every 3 hours.

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