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Gremio vs Corinthians - 1X2 Stats & Probability Analysis

Win Draw Win Probability Models & Match Outcome Analysis

Brazil

Brazil

Serie A

Gremio

D
W
W
D
W
L

30 May 2026

20:30 (UTC+0)

(1
-
1)

1

-

3

FT

Corinthians

L
W
D
L
W
W

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds & Probability

Fulltime

Home

3.00
-

Draw

3.02
-

Away

2.51
-

1st Half

Home

3.64
-

Draw

1.97
-

Away

3.23
-

2nd Half

Home

3.27
-

Draw

2.20
-

Away

2.88
-

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MATCH EVIDENCE

Form & Performance

Brazil

Serie A

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

55%

67%

67%

22%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

55%

61%

67%

32%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

44%

46%

70%

36%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

53%

48%

65%

40%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

51%

51%

75%

45%

Home only

Away only

Total Goals

average per game

Brazil

Serie A

Poor
Attack
Poor
Good
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.17
0.83
1

Scored

Conceded

1.17
1.17

Difference

0

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.5
1.17
0.67

Scored

Conceded

1
0.67

Difference

+0.33

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-0.38
0.5
0.88

Scored

Conceded

0.75
1.25

Difference

-0.5

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.15
1.35
1.2

Scored

Conceded

0.95
1.15

Difference

-0.2

Season

Full season averages

Difference

-0.06
1.12
1.18

Scored

Conceded

0.88
1.06

Difference

-0.18

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Home vs Away Strength

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Total Goals

average per game

Brazil

Serie A

Poor
Attack
Poor
Good
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.17
0.83
1

Scored

Conceded

1.17
1.17

Difference

0

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.5
1.17
0.67

Scored

Conceded

1
0.67

Difference

+0.33

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-0.38
0.5
0.88

Scored

Conceded

0.75
1.25

Difference

-0.5

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.15
1.35
1.2

Scored

Conceded

0.95
1.15

Difference

-0.2

Season

Full season averages

Difference

-0.06
1.12
1.18

Scored

Conceded

0.88
1.06

Difference

-0.18

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Form & Performance

Brazil

Serie A

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

55%

67%

67%

22%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

55%

61%

67%

32%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

44%

46%

70%

36%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

53%

48%

65%

40%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

51%

51%

75%

45%

Home only

Away only

Home vs Away Strength

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HEAD TO HEAD

Head to Head

Last 365 days

2 Matches

(0%)

0

Wins

Draws: 1

1

(50%)

1

(50%)

1

(50%)

Avg Goals per Match

0.5
1.5

Scored

Conceded

1.5
0.5

Gremio

Corinthians

All Matches

30 Matches

(27%)

8

Wins

Draws: 13

9

(30%)

8

(27%)

13

(43%)

9

(30%)

Avg Goals per Match

0.9
0.93

Scored

Conceded

0.93
0.9

Gremio

Corinthians

Brazil | Serie A

02 Nov 25

Corinthians

2
0

Gremio

7mo ago

Brazil | Serie A

12 Jun 25

Gremio

1
1

Corinthians

1y ago

Brazil | Serie A

08 Dec 24

Gremio

0
3

Corinthians

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

11/05
12/05
13/05

Away

0:3

14/05

15/05
16/05

Away

1:1

17/05

18/05
19/05
20/05

Home

2:0

21/05

22/05

Home

3:2

23/05

24/05
25/05

Home

2:2

26/05

27/05
28/05
29/05

Home

1:3

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06
06/06
07/06

Head to Head

Last 365 days

2 Matches

(0%)

0

Wins

Draws: 1

1

(50%)

1

(50%)

1

(50%)

Avg Goals per Match

0.5
1.5

Scored

Conceded

1.5
0.5

Gremio

Corinthians

All Matches

30 Matches

(27%)

8

Wins

Draws: 13

9

(30%)

8

(27%)

13

(43%)

9

(30%)

Avg Goals per Match

0.9
0.93

Scored

Conceded

0.93
0.9

Gremio

Corinthians

Brazil | Serie A

02 Nov 25

Corinthians

2
0

Gremio

7mo ago

Brazil | Serie A

12 Jun 25

Gremio

1
1

Corinthians

1y ago

Brazil | Serie A

08 Dec 24

Gremio

0
3

Corinthians

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

11/05
12/05
13/05

Away

0:3

14/05

15/05
16/05

Away

1:1

17/05

18/05
19/05
20/05

Home

2:0

21/05

22/05

Home

3:2

23/05

24/05
25/05

Home

2:2

26/05

27/05
28/05
29/05

Home

1:3

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06
06/06
07/06

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Competition

Period

Side

FT/HT

MATCH EVIDENCE

Goals History

Gremio

Corinthians

Last Matches (1X2)

Fulltime

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

30/05

20:30

Gremio
Corinthians
1
3

H

3.00

D

3.02

A

2.51

L
World

World | CONMEBOL Sudamericana

FT

26/05

22:00

Gremio
Atletico Torque
2
2

H

1.53

D

3.90

A

6.44

D
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

23/05

22:00

Gremio
Santos
3
2

H

2.17

D

3.21

A

3.43

W
World

World | CONMEBOL Sudamericana

FT

21/05

00:00

Gremio
Palestino
2
0

H

1.42

D

4.35

A

7.36

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

17/05

19:00

Bahia
Gremio
1
1

H

1.68

D

3.88

A

4.81

D
Brazil

Brazil | Copa Do Brasil

FT

14/05

22:00

Confiança
Gremio
0
3

H

4.31

D

3.35

A

1.84

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

10/05

22:30

Gremio
Flamengo
0
1

H

3.99

D

3.37

A

1.94

L
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Gremio

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

30/05

20:30

Gremio
Corinthians
1
3

H

3.00

D

3.02

A

2.51

L
World

World | CONMEBOL Sudamericana

FT

26/05

22:00

Gremio
Atletico Torque
2
2

H

1.53

D

3.90

A

6.44

D
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

23/05

22:00

Gremio
Santos
3
2

H

2.17

D

3.21

A

3.43

W
World

World | CONMEBOL Sudamericana

FT

21/05

00:00

Gremio
Palestino
2
0

H

1.42

D

4.35

A

7.36

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

17/05

19:00

Bahia
Gremio
1
1

H

1.68

D

3.88

A

4.81

D
Brazil

Brazil | Copa Do Brasil

FT

14/05

22:00

Confiança
Gremio
0
3

H

4.31

D

3.35

A

1.84

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

10/05

22:30

Gremio
Flamengo
0
1

H

3.99

D

3.37

A

1.94

L
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Corinthians

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

30/05

20:30

Gremio
Corinthians
1
3

H

3.00

D

3.02

A

2.51

W
World

World | CONMEBOL Libertadores

FT

28/05

00:30

Corinthians
Platense
0
2

H

1.69

D

3.37

A

5.52

L
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

24/05

21:30

Corinthians
Atletico-MG
1
0

H

1.85

D

3.26

A

4.62

W
World

World | CONMEBOL Libertadores

FT

22/05

00:30

Penarol
Corinthians
1
1

H

2.42

D

2.86

A

3.30

D
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

17/05

19:00

Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1

H

2.33

D

3.16

A

3.14

L
Brazil

Brazil | Copa Do Brasil

FT

14/05

22:30

Corinthians
Barra
1
0

H

1.27

D

5.18

A

10.27

W
Brazil

Brazil | Serie A

FT

10/05

21:30

Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2

H

2.01

D

3.10

A

4.08

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Lineups

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 4.11 per game

High Team Rotation!
Frequent lineup changes help manage fatigue but may disrupt team chemistry

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

95

Carlos Vinicius

6.7
M

Midfielders

33

L. Perez

6.5
M

8

Arthur Melo

6.9
H

21

Tete

6.6
H

22

M. Braithwaite

6.9
M

37

Gabriel Mec

7.5
M

Defenders

14

Marcos Rocha

6
H

3

Wagner Leonardo

6.2
H

44

Viery

5.9
L

54

Pedro Gabriel

5.3
M

Goalkeepers

24

Thiago Beltrame

6.2
H
Injuries/Absence

Key Players

Gustavo Martins

Knock

L

Luis Eduardo

Inactive

M

J. Nardoni

Hamstring Injury

M

C. Pavon

Injury

L

Weverton

International duty

L

Others

Fabian Balbuena

International duty

H

Gabriel Grando

Inactive

H

Marlon

Broken ankle

-

Gremio

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 4.11 per game

High Team Rotation!
Frequent lineup changes help manage fatigue but may disrupt team chemistry

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

95

Carlos Vinicius

6.7
M

Midfielders

33

L. Perez

6.5
M

8

Arthur Melo

6.9
H

21

Tete

6.6
H

22

M. Braithwaite

6.9
M

37

Gabriel Mec

7.5
M

Defenders

14

Marcos Rocha

6
H

3

Wagner Leonardo

6.2
H

44

Viery

5.9
L

54

Pedro Gabriel

5.3
M

Goalkeepers

24

Thiago Beltrame

6.2
H
Injuries/Absence

Key Players

Gustavo Martins

Knock

L

Luis Eduardo

Inactive

M

J. Nardoni

Hamstring Injury

M

C. Pavon

Injury

L

Weverton

International duty

L

Others

Fabian Balbuena

International duty

H

Gabriel Grando

Inactive

H

Marlon

Broken ankle

-

Corinthians

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 3.89 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

9

Yuri Alberto

6.9
L

Midfielders

49

Andre

9.2
M

14

Raniele

6.9
M

37

Kaio Cesar

8.2
H

8

R. Garro

7.3
L

7

Breno Bidon

7.7
M

Defenders

2

Matheuzinho

6.9
M

3

Gabriel Paulista

6.9
L

13

Gustavo Henrique

6.5
L

21

Matheus Bidu

6.9
L

Goalkeepers

1

Hugo Souza

6.5
L
Injuries/Absence

Key Players

M. Depay

International duty

M

J. Lingard

Personal Reasons

M

Others

Charles Rigon

Inactive

H

Joao Pedro

Muscle Injury

-

Kayke

Knee Injury

-

Vitinho

Hip Injury

H

Player Rotation Legend

L

Low

M

Medium

H

High

-

Unknown

  • Low: Regular starter with stable minutes
  • Medium: Plays regularly but role/minutes vary
  • High: Unpredictable role, often rotated or benched.

Overall Form

72%
Overall Form
63%
5
Wins
5
4
Draws
2
1
Losses
3

Rankings

Current Season

14
Serie A
15
17
Played
17
1.24
Points per Match
1.24

Quality

65%
Team Quality
60%
55%
Avg Opponent Quality
54%

Goals Performance

64%
Goals Performance
50%
1.5
Scored Goals
1.2
0.6
Conceded Goals
1.1
0.9
Goals Difference
(Scored - Conceded)
0.1
2.1
Total Goals
(Scored + Conceded)
2.3

Average Goals per Match

vs

Statistics

Average Statistics per Game

1.24
Expected Goals
Missing Data (1 | 1)
1.07
11.7
Total Shots
15.6
3.9
Shots on Goal
4.9
6.7
Shots Inside Box
8
5
Shots Outside Box
7.6
52%
Possession
62%
84%
Passes %
85%

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds Movement

All odds shown are the average odds from all bookmakers in our system.

Home

3.00

Draw

3.02

Away

2.51

2.26

Home

3.00

3.02

Draw

3.18

2.51

Away

3.21

Max

Home

3.00

Draw

3.18

Away

3.21

%

33%
5%
28%

Min

Home

2.26

Draw

3.02

Away

2.51

NOTE: Odds are updated every 3 hours.

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