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Home Favored
May 31, 2026, 06:04 PM
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Palmeiras, sitting pretty atop Serie A, face a seemingly straightforward task against rock-bottom Chapecoense-sc. However, the league leaders contend with a raft of key absences, setting up a potential banana skin against a side fighting desperately for survival.
Home Motivation
High
Palmeiras is highly motivated as they are currently 1st in Serie A, 4 points clear of 2nd place, and are aiming to extend their lead to solidify their Copa Libertadores qualification and title challenge.
Away Motivation
High
Chapecoense-sc has high motivation as they are 20th in Serie A with 9 points, actively battling relegation and needing to close the gap to 17th-placed Vasco DA Gama (20 points) to avoid being mathematically relegated.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.16
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
-0.73
Palmeiras maintain a positive xG difference, creating more than they concede (0.16), while Chapecoense-sc are significantly negative (-0.73), indicating a substantial disparity in underlying performance quality in recent form.
0.66
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.06
Palmeiras demonstrate a robust defense, conceding just 0.66 goals per game in recent form, which is well below the league average. Chapecoense-sc, in contrast, are shipping 2.06 goals per game on a recent-form basis, highlighting their defensive vulnerability.
3.96
Shots on target against
All comps (EWMA)
6.38
Palmeiras are effective at limiting opposition chances, conceding only 3.96 shots on target per game in recent form. Chapecoense-sc allow nearly double that amount, giving up 6.38 shots on target, which suggests their goalkeeper faces far more pressure.
6.62
Corners won per game
All comps (EWMA)
3.59
Palmeiras average 6.62 corners per game on a recent-form basis, indicating their attacking dominance and ability to force defensive actions. Chapecoense-sc manage only 3.59 corners per game, reflecting their struggles to get into dangerous positions.
2.5
PPG (season venue)
Season avg
0.29
Palmeiras boast an outstanding 2.5 points per game at home this season in Serie A, a testament to their strength at Allianz Parque. Chapecoense-sc are rock bottom on the road with a mere 0.29 points per game, underscoring their severe away day issues.
50%
Possession %
All comps (EWMA)
43%
Palmeiras typically control the ball with 50% possession in recent matches, providing a platform for their attacks. Chapecoense-sc operate with less of the ball, holding 43% possession in recent form, suggesting they are more reactive.
Form & Streaks
Palmeiras are undefeated in their last 10 Serie A matches, recording 6 wins and 4 draws.
Palmeiras have won 7 of their last 10 matches at home across all competitions (7W,2D,1L).
Chapecoense-sc are without a win in their last 10 Serie A matches, drawing 2 and losing 8.
Chapecoense-sc have lost 6 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions (2W,2D,6L).
Tactical Overview
Palmeiras are flying high, leading the Serie A table with 38 points and showing dominant home form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches across all competitions at Allianz Parque (7W,2D,1L). They recently dispatched Junior 4-1 in the Copa Libertadores and secured a crucial 3-0 away win against Flamengo, showcasing their attacking prowess. Their recent-form xG created is 0.98 per game, coupled with a tight defense conceding just 0.83 xG per game. In stark contrast, Chapecoense-sc languish at the bottom with just 9 points, enduring a dismal run of 8 losses in their last 10 league away matches (0W,2D,8L). Their defensive struggles are evident, trending at 1.69 xG conceded per game in recent form and shipping a staggering 20 goals in their last 10 Serie A away fixtures. The head-to-head record is a clean sweep for Palmeiras, who have won all 5 of their recent encounters, including a 2-0 victory four years ago. However, Palmeiras will be without several key players due to international duty, suspension, and injury, which could force tactical adjustments by their manager despite the significant gap in quality.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Palmeiras lean on Marlon Freitas in midfield, with Murilo and Arthur Gabriel at the back.
Absences
Andreas Pereira
Yellow Cards
J. Arias
International duty
Benedetti
Ankle Injury
Carlos Miguel
Yellow Cards
A. Giay
Yellow Cards
G. Gomez
International duty
J. Lopez
International duty
E. Martinez
International duty
Mauricio
International duty
J. Piquerez
International duty
R. Sosa
International duty
Vitor Roque
Ankle Injury
Bruno Fuchs
Hamstring Injury
Home
Key Players
Palmeiras lean on Marlon Freitas in midfield, with Murilo and Arthur Gabriel at the back.
Absences
Andreas Pereira
Yellow Cards
J. Arias
International duty
Benedetti
Ankle Injury
Carlos Miguel
Yellow Cards
A. Giay
Yellow Cards
G. Gomez
International duty
J. Lopez
International duty
E. Martinez
International duty
Mauricio
International duty
J. Piquerez
International duty
R. Sosa
International duty
Vitor Roque
Ankle Injury
Bruno Fuchs
Hamstring Injury
Away
Key Players
Chapecoense-sc lean on Camilo and Bruno Pacheco in midfield, João Paulo at the back, with Anderson in goal.
Absences
Eduardo Doma
Yellow Cards
Robert Conceicao
Knee Injury
Victor Caetano
Calf Injury
Everton
Injury
Mauricio Garcez
Inactive
Rafael Thyere
Hamstring Injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
F. Fernandes de Lima
10 matches officiated · 2026/27
Cards/G
7.1
▲
avg 5.2
Fouls/G
32.0
▲
avg 27.0
Pen Rate
0.30
NormalReferee F. Fernandes de Lima is known for his strict approach in Serie A, averaging 7.1 cards per game across 10 matches this season - a significant 36.5% above the league average of 5.2 cards. He also awards penalties at a rate of 0.3 per game. Given both Palmeiras (2.35 yellow cards per game in recent form) and Chapecoense-sc (2.77 yellow cards per game in recent form) tend to rack up bookings, this match could easily push past standard card lines, favoring overs, especially with the high stakes of a league leader versus a relegation-threatened side.
Key Note
Runs 37% above league average on cards. awards penalties at 0.30/game.
Weather & Field
Good Conditions
21C, partly sunny
Temperature
20.6°C
Rain Chance
5%
Wind
6 km/h
Humidity
64%
The weather conditions for this match are ideal, with 21°C and partly sunny skies, a low rain probability of 5%, and negligible wind at 6 km/h. There will be no material impact on pitch conditions or player performance, meaning no direct betting market implications for goals, corners, or cards due to weather.
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