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Home Favored
Jun 6, 2026, 10:01 AM
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Belgium enters their final World Cup warm-up as overwhelming favorites, looking to maintain an unbeaten streak that stretches across their last ten matches. Tunisia faces a steep tactical climb under new leadership, aiming to use this Brussels clash to simulate the pressure of their upcoming tournament opener.
Home Motivation
Low
Belgium is playing a low-stakes exhibition match serving solely as preparation for the upcoming World Cup.
Away Motivation
Low
Tunisia is in a similar position, utilizing this friendly to integrate new players and a new manager before the tournament.
Market Picks
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The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
3.72
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.10
Belgium is trending well above the league average of 2.72, nearly doubling Tunisia's production in recent form.
8.38
Shots on target per game
All comps (EWMA)
3.43
Belgium tests the goalkeeper more than twice as often as Tunisia on a recent-form basis.
10.67
Corners won per game
All comps (EWMA)
6.82
The home side wins significantly more corners, reflecting their sustained pressure and 69% possession rate.
9.25
Fouls per game
All comps (EWMA)
18.76
Tunisia commits twice as many fouls per game, providing frequent set-piece opportunities for technical players like De Bruyne.
70%
Win rate %
Last 10 matches
30%
Belgium has more than double the win rate of Tunisia over their last 10 respective matches.
88%
Pass accuracy %
All comps (EWMA)
83%
Superior technical execution allows Belgium to control the tempo, especially in their final third transitions.
Form & Streaks
Belgium is undefeated across their last 10 matches (7W, 3D, 0L) in all competitions.
Tunisia has managed only 3 wins in their last 10 matches across all competitions (3W, 4D, 3L).
Belgium has won 6 of their last 10 matches at the King Baudouin Stadium (6W, 1D, 3L).
Tactical Overview
Belgium is in ruthless attacking form, trending at 3.72 goals scored per game on a recent-form basis, which is well above the league average of 2.72. Their last ten matches have been defined by dominance (7W, 3D, 0L), including a massive 7-0 victory over Liechtenstein and a 2-0 win away at Croatia. With Kevin De Bruyne orchestrating a midfield that maintains 69% possession in recent matches, the home side creates an average of 22.30 shots per game. Tunisia has been far more conservative, recording three draws in their last five outings (LDWDD) and averaging only 3.43 shots on target per game. While Ellyes Skhiri provides stability in the center, the visitors may struggle if Hannibal Mejbri remains limited by injury, potentially leaving Montassar Talbi and the defense exposed to a Belgium side that has already scored 17 goals in their last four home fixtures.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Belgium will rely on the attacking prowess of Romelu Lukaku, who recently scored upon his return from injury. Midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne is expected to orchestrate play, while Jérémy Doku provides dynamic threat from the wing. Leandro Trossard is also in good form after a successful club season and is eager to contribute for the national team.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Home
Key Players
Belgium will rely on the attacking prowess of Romelu Lukaku, who recently scored upon his return from injury. Midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne is expected to orchestrate play, while Jérémy Doku provides dynamic threat from the wing. Leandro Trossard is also in good form after a successful club season and is eager to contribute for the national team.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Away
Key Players
Tunisia will look to their experienced midfielder Ellyes Skhiri to control the center of the park. In defense, Montassar Talbi is a regular starter and will be crucial to their backline. Attacking duties may fall to Elias Achouri, a regular starter for the team.
Absences
Hannibal Mejbri
withdrawn from previous match with injury; still being assessed
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
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