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Jun 1, 2026, 02:01 PM
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Norway prepare for the World Cup with a final home friendly against a Sweden side also looking to solidify their squad. The hosts bring an exceptional recent home record to Ullevaal Stadion, while Sweden grapple with significant attacking absences.
Home Motivation
Low
This is a friendly match, so Norway's motivation is low as there are no competition stakes. However, players will be motivated to impress for World Cup squad selection.
Away Motivation
Low
As a friendly fixture, Sweden has low motivation in terms of competition stakes. Nevertheless, players will be aiming to perform well to secure their place in the final World Cup squad.
Market Picks
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The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
2.48
xG created per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.17
Norway's attacking output is nearly double that of Sweden in recent form, 2.48 xG per game versus 1.17. This suggests Norway will generate far more high-quality scoring chances.
1.81
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
-0.56
Norway has a significant positive xG difference of 1.81, indicating strong overall performance, while Sweden is in negative territory at -0.56, highlighting their struggles to outperform opponents.
4.71
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.42
Norway is trending at 4.71 goals per game in recent form, showcasing their clinical finishing, far superior to Sweden's 1.42 goals per game, indicating a clear offensive advantage.
7.00
Shots on target per game
All comps (EWMA)
3.26
Norway averages 7.00 shots on target per game on a recent-form basis, more than double Sweden's 3.26. This reflects Norway's ability to consistently test the opposition goalkeeper.
0.56
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.84
Norway's defense is incredibly tight, trending at 0.56 goals conceded per game in recent form, while Sweden is conceding 1.84 goals per game, pointing to a significant defensive disparity.
Form & Streaks
Norway is undefeated in their last 10 home matches across all competitions, securing 8 wins and 2 draws (8W,2D,0L in 10).
Sweden has lost 4 of their last 10 matches across all competitions (4W,2D,4L in 10).
Norway has won 7 of their last 10 matches across all competitions (7W,2D,1L in 10).
Tactical Overview
Norway arrives in formidable form, particularly at home, where they've posted an impressive 8 wins and 2 draws in their last 10 matches, scoring 35 goals and conceding just 4. Their overall recent performance across all competitions shows 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Tactically, they've been generating a massive 2.48 xG per game in recent form, well above the league average, indicating a potent attack led by players like Alexander Sørloth and Jørgen Strand Larsen, even with Erling Haaland out of the squad. Midfield control from Sander Berge and defensive solidity from Kristoffer Ajer will be key. Sweden, in contrast, has struggled, with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in their last 10 overall. Their recent-form xG created per game is a modest 1.17, while conceding 1.73 xG per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Their away form, like their home, shows 4 losses in their last 10 at venue, shipping 15 goals. The last H2H saw Norway take a 3-2 victory.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Midfielder Sander Berge is a regular starter who will be key in controlling the midfield, alongside Kristoffer Ajer who provides stability in defense. The team also expects contributions from Antonio Nusa, who has a strong record when scoring for the national team. [cite: Flashscore:4]
Absences
Leo Østigård
missed end of club season
Erling Haaland
not involved after playing in Champions League final
Home
Key Players
Midfielder Sander Berge is a regular starter who will be key in controlling the midfield, alongside Kristoffer Ajer who provides stability in defense. The team also expects contributions from Antonio Nusa, who has a strong record when scoring for the national team. [cite: Flashscore:4]
Absences
Leo Østigård
missed end of club season
Erling Haaland
not involved after playing in Champions League final
Away
Key Players
Sweden's attack will be spearheaded by Alexander Isak, who is expected to play despite an injury-hit club season. Midfielder Yasin Ayari is a regular starter who will be important in orchestrating play. The defense will likely feature Victor Lindelöf and Gustaf Lagerbielke, providing a solid foundation for the team. [cite: FotMob:2, Flashscore:6, Sofascore:4]
Absences
Viktor Gyökeres
played in Champions League final
Gabriel Gudmundsson
hamstring injury
Dejan Kulusevski
patella injury (missed entire 2025-26 season)
Emil Holm
muscle injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
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