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Home Favored
Jun 1, 2026, 06:01 PM
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This Serie D clash pits two mid-table sides, Maguary PE and Sousa, both sitting on 10 points, in what is shaping up to be a tight defensive battle. Given their recent low-scoring encounters and Maguary PE's formidable home defense, goals could be at a premium.
Home Motivation
Medium
Maguary PE is currently in a mid-table position (59th) in Serie D, far from the top 7 for potential promotion and well clear of the relegation zone. With 182 games remaining, there are no immediate high stakes.
Away Motivation
Medium
Sousa holds a mid-table position (67th) in Serie D, with no immediate threat of relegation or strong prospects for promotion at this stage of the long season.
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The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.66
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
0.60
Both teams trend well below the league average of 2.31 goals per game in recent form, indicating a low-scoring affair is probable. Maguary PE has a slight edge at 0.66 vs 0.60.
0.50
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
0.90
Maguary PE's defense is significantly stronger, trending at 0.50 goals conceded per game in recent form compared to Sousa's 0.90. This gap points to a significant defensive advantage for the home side.
75%
Clean sheet %
Serie D AT VENUE
20%
Maguary PE boasts an impressive 75% clean sheet rate in their Serie D home matches, while Sousa has only managed 20% clean sheets in their Serie D away games. This highlights Maguary PE's defensive prowess at home.
1.75
PPG (season venue)
Season avg
0.75
Maguary PE has collected 1.75 PPG at home this Serie D season, while Sousa has struggled to just 0.75 PPG on the road. This indicates a clear performance differential when factoring in venue.
20%
Loss rate %
ALL COMPS AT VENUE
50%
Sousa's tendency to lose away from home (50% in last 10 All Comps away) is considerably higher than Maguary PE's home loss rate (20% in last 10 All Comps at venue), emphasizing the challenge for the visitors.
Form & Streaks
Maguary PE has been defensively robust at home in all competitions, with 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 home matches, showing great resilience.
Sousa's away form in the league is concerning, recording 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses in their last 10 Serie D away matches.
Maguary PE has gone 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 4 home Serie D matches, showing strong recent form at their venue.
Tactical Overview
Maguary PE comes into this match with a noticeable home advantage, reflected in their Serie D at venue record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 4 matches, securing 1.75 PPG. They have been particularly stingy defensively at home in the league, conceding only 2 goals in 4 games, boasting an impressive 75% clean sheet rate in those matches. Offensively, Vinicius Kanu and Júlio César will be central to their attack, supported by Eduardo in midfield. Sousa, conversely, has struggled significantly on the road in Serie D, with a dismal record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses in their last 10 away league matches, earning only 0.5 PPG. Their goals scored away in the league also sit at a meager 4 goals in 10 matches, while conceding 14. Despite Sousa securing a 1-0 win in their last head-to-head meeting a month ago at home, their away form with Luiz Henrique, Felipe Jacaré, and Diego Viana leading the attack, along with Everton Heleno in midfield, paints a challenging picture. This suggests Maguary PE's defensive solidity at home against Sousa's away struggles will dictate the flow.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Maguary PE will likely rely on Vinicius Kanu for offensive contributions, as he has been involved in goal-scoring situations for the team. Júlio César is also expected to be a key figure, contributing to the team's attack. The midfield presence of Eduardo will be important in dictating the tempo and creating opportunities. The team's defensive efforts will be crucial.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Home
Key Players
Maguary PE will likely rely on Vinicius Kanu for offensive contributions, as he has been involved in goal-scoring situations for the team. Júlio César is also expected to be a key figure, contributing to the team's attack. The midfield presence of Eduardo will be important in dictating the tempo and creating opportunities. The team's defensive efforts will be crucial.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Away
Key Players
For Sousa, Luiz Henrique is anticipated to be a significant attacking threat. Felipe Jacaré will also be looked upon for his contributions in the final third. Diego Viana is another player expected to be important in the team's offensive plays. In the midfield, Everton Heleno is likely to play a pivotal role in linking defense and attack.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
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