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Away Favored
Jun 5, 2026, 04:03 PM
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Moldova and Bulgaria clash in a friendly where both nations will be looking to rebuild momentum. Moldova are in a desperate search for form, while Bulgaria arrive with slightly more positive recent results.
Home Motivation
Medium
Away Motivation
Medium
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
3.69
xG conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.27
Moldova's high xG conceded figure of 3.69 per game on a recent-form basis suggests extreme defensive vulnerability, while Bulgaria's 2.27 conceded is significantly tighter, indicating an advantage for the visitors in preventing chances.
0.54
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.11
Bulgaria's scoring rate of 2.11 goals per game in recent form is nearly four times that of Moldova's 0.54, highlighting a substantial gap in attacking output.
90%
Loss rate %
All comps (last 10 matches)
70%
Moldova's 90% loss rate in their last 10 matches starkly contrasts with Bulgaria's 70% rate, showing Moldova's consistent struggle to avoid defeat.
2.42
Shots on target per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.61
Despite a weaker overall record, Moldova actually registers more shots on target per game (2.42 vs 1.61) in recent form, suggesting they can test goalkeepers, though finishing efficiency is clearly an issue.
-3.43
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
-1.96
The significant negative xG difference for Moldova (-3.43) points to a team being heavily outperformed by opponents, while Bulgaria's -1.96, though negative, shows a smaller deficit and less defensive capitulation.
0.1
PPG (3/1/0)
All comps (last 10 matches)
0.9
Bulgaria's average of 0.9 points per game in their last 10 outings is considerably higher than Moldova's meager 0.1 PPG, reflecting Bulgaria's greater ability to grind out results.
Form & Streaks
Moldova are winless in their last 10 matches (0W 1D 9L).
Bulgaria have won 2 of their last 3 matches played on March 27th and 30th this year in FIFA Series friendlies.
Moldova have lost 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Bulgaria have won 3 of their last 10 matches overall.
Tactical Overview
Moldova arrive in dire straits, having lost 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, failing to secure a win. Their home record in their last 10 at home is also poor (4W 0D 6L), with significant defensive frailties evident, conceding 22 goals in that span. Their recent form shows just 6 goals scored in their last 10 overall games, well below a league average of 2.70. In contrast, Bulgaria have shown flashes of attacking intent, notably winning 3 of their last 10 overall games. Away from home, they've managed 13 goals in their last 10 fixtures, demonstrating a greater offensive capability than their opponents, despite a 3W 1D 6L record in that sample. Bulgaria's recent form of 1.0 PPG contrasts sharply with Moldova's 0.1 PPG, underlining the difference in current standing.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Moldova will likely rely on the defensive strength of Baboglo to anchor their backline. In the midfield, Raţă is expected to be a key figure in dictating the tempo and distributing the ball. Upfront, the attacking prowess of Boiciuc will be crucial for creating scoring opportunities.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Home
Key Players
Moldova will likely rely on the defensive strength of Baboglo to anchor their backline. In the midfield, Raţă is expected to be a key figure in dictating the tempo and distributing the ball. Upfront, the attacking prowess of Boiciuc will be crucial for creating scoring opportunities.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Away
Key Players
For Bulgaria, goalkeeper Mitov will be vital in commanding the defense and making crucial saves. In defense, Petrov is anticipated to be a strong presence, disrupting opposition attacks. Midfielder Krastev is expected to be central to Bulgaria's creative play and offensive transitions.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Insider Intel