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Game Intelligence
Away Favored
May 25, 2026, 08:01 AM
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A historic place in the third tier is on the line at Wembley as Salford City puts their total dominance over Notts County to the ultimate test in this promotion final. While league standings suggest a narrow margin, the psychological edge belongs firmly to the Ammies, who have won the last five meetings between these two clubs.
Home Motivation
High
Notts County have maximum motivation as they contest the League Two play-off final, a single-leg match where the winner earns promotion to the third tier.
Away Motivation
High
Salford City are highly motivated to secure a historic first promotion to League One in this winner-takes-all play-off final.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.44
xG conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
0.94
Salford are significantly more disciplined defensively than Notts on a recent-form basis
1.4
Points Per Game (PPG)
Last 10 matches
1.8
Salford have maintained a higher win rate and PPG over their last 10 league matches
-0.24
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
0.22
Salford are creating more than they concede in recent form, unlike Notts
76%
Pass accuracy %
All comps (EWMA)
63%
Notts control the ball much more effectively, which could be vital for managing Wembley fatigue
2.34
Yellow cards per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.69
Notts have shown less discipline in recent matches, a risk factor in a final
Form & Streaks
Salford City have won each of their last 5 encounters against Notts County.
Salford City lost only 2 of their last 10 matches (5W, 3D, 2L) in League Two.
Notts County have won 4 of their last 10 matches (4W, 2D, 4L) in League Two.
Tactical Overview
Salford City enters this final with a massive mental advantage, having secured five consecutive wins against Notts County, including a 2-1 victory just over a month ago. In terms of recent form, Salford City have been more consistent, earning 1.8 PPG over their last 10 league matches compared to 1.4 for Notts County. Defensively, the contrast is stark; Salford City are trending at 0.94 xG conceded per game in recent form, while the Magpies have been far more vulnerable at 1.44. Notts County will attempt to control the match through high-volume passing, maintaining a 76% pass accuracy in recent games compared to Salford's 63%. However, the absence of key defender Matthew Platt (injury) could leave James Belshaw exposed to a Salford attack led by the inform Daniel Udoh and semi-final hero Kallum Cesay.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Alassana Jatta is a significant attacking threat for Notts County, capable of creating opportunities and influencing the game's outcome. The defense is expected to be anchored by Jacob Bedeau and Rod McDonald, with Lucas Ness also forming part of a resilient backline. Jodi Jones is anticipated to feature and contribute to the team's offensive play, having shown strong form this season.
Absences
Lewis Macari
serious leg injury requiring surgery
Matthew Platt
ACL injury
Harald Tangen
undisclosed injury
Home
Key Players
Alassana Jatta is a significant attacking threat for Notts County, capable of creating opportunities and influencing the game's outcome. The defense is expected to be anchored by Jacob Bedeau and Rod McDonald, with Lucas Ness also forming part of a resilient backline. Jodi Jones is anticipated to feature and contribute to the team's offensive play, having shown strong form this season.
Absences
Lewis Macari
serious leg injury requiring surgery
Matthew Platt
ACL injury
Harald Tangen
undisclosed injury
Away
Key Players
Salford City's attack will likely feature Daniel Udoh, who has been in good scoring form, and Kallum Cesay, who has recently returned from injury and scored important goals. Ryan Graydon is also a key player contributing to their offensive efforts. In defense, Adebola Oluwo, Luke Garbutt, and Brandon Cooper are expected to be key figures.
Absences
Zachariah Olumide Awe
undisclosed injury
Ossama Ashley
undisclosed injury
Jorge Grant
undisclosed injury
Michael Rose
undisclosed injury
Ollie Turton
meniscus injury
Josh Austerfield
ankle injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
T. Reeves
11 matches officiated · 2025/26
Fouls/G
21.6
▼
avg 23.1
Pen Rate
0.00
NormalAcross 11 League Two games this season, T. Reeves has maintained an average style, overseeing 21.6 fouls per game. This is slightly lower than the league average of 23.15, suggesting he may allow for a more physical contest in this high-stakes final. This tendency could slightly favor the more aggressive Notts County, though they must be wary of their own high recent booking rate (2.34 cards per game).
Insider Intel