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Balanced
May 25, 2026, 02:01 PM
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Survival and ambition collide at the Home Deluxe Arena as SC Paderborn 07 attempts to end a six-year top-flight hiatus following a gritty 0-0 first-leg draw. VfL Wolfsburg faces the terrifying prospect of ending a 29-year Bundesliga residency if they cannot find a way through a resilient home defense.
Home Motivation
High
Motivation is maximum as SC Paderborn 07 stands one home victory away from promotion to the Bundesliga following a resilient 0-0 away draw.
Away Motivation
High
Motivation is maximum for VfL Wolfsburg as they battle to avoid their first relegation from the Bundesliga since their promotion in 1997.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.70
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.17
The hosts are significantly more clinical, scoring 1.70 goals per match on a recent-form basis despite lower xG creation
0.84
xG created per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.46
Despite their finishing woes, the visitors create nearly double the quality of chances with a recent-form average of 1.46 xG
4.16
Corners conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
6.59
The visitors concede significantly more corners in recent matches, providing a path for C. Brackelmann and T. Scheller to threaten from set pieces
60%
Win rate % at venue
All comps venue (last 10)
20%
In their last 10 matches at this venue, the hosts have a 60% win rate compared to just 20% for the visitors on the road
3.69
GK saves per game
All comps (EWMA)
3.59
Both D. Seimen and K. Grabara are highly active, which is crucial in a match where shots on target are trending near 5 per team
Form & Streaks
SC Paderborn 07 has seen Both Teams to Score occur in every one of their last 10 home matches across all competitions (100% BTTS)
VfL Wolfsburg has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 away matches across all competitions
SC Paderborn 07 is undefeated in 8 of their last 10 matches at home (6W, 3D, 1L in all competitions)
Tactical Overview
The first leg was a tale of dominance without a clinical edge, as VfL Wolfsburg outshot their opponents 17-2 but failed to convert six shots on target. SC Paderborn 07 has been remarkably resilient at home across all competitions, securing 6 wins and only 1 loss in their last 10 matches at the Home Deluxe Arena. They carry a recent-form average of 1.70 goals scored per game, which contrasts sharply with VfL Wolfsburg's struggle to find the net, as the visitors are trending at just 1.17 goals per match. While VfL Wolfsburg creates significantly more threat with a recent-form xG of 1.46 per game compared to 0.84 for the hosts, their inability to finish was glaring in the 0-0 stalemate. SC Paderborn 07 manager will look to sustain the team spirit that saw them survive the first leg, relying on the security provided by goalkeeper Dennis Seimen, while VfL Wolfsburg will miss the leadership of the injured Maximilian Arnold in a high-pressure environment.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
SC Paderborn 07 lean on Laurin Curda in midfield, Calvin Brackelmann and Tjark Lasse Scheller at the back, with Dennis Seimen in goal.
Absences
M. Hoffmeier
Inactive
J. Sticker
Red Card
R. Obermair
Achilles Tendon Injury
Home
Key Players
SC Paderborn 07 lean on Laurin Curda in midfield, Calvin Brackelmann and Tjark Lasse Scheller at the back, with Dennis Seimen in goal.
Absences
M. Hoffmeier
Inactive
J. Sticker
Red Card
R. Obermair
Achilles Tendon Injury
Away
Key Players
VfL Wolfsburg lean on Joakim Mæhle and Christian Eriksen in midfield, Jeanuël Belocian at the back, with Kamil Grabara in goal.
Absences
M. Arnold
Groin Injury
B. Dardai
Knee Injury
Rogerio
Muscle Injury
J. Seelt
Knee Injury
P. Wimmer
Thigh Injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
Felix Zwayer
17 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
4.8
▲
avg 4.0
Fouls/G
21.2
▲
avg 20.9
Pen Rate
0.29
NormalFelix Zwayer is one of the stricter officials in the league, averaging 4.83 cards per game in 17 Bundesliga matches this season, which is 20.8% above the league average. Given the massive stakes of this second leg, Zwayer’s tendency to award 0.29 penalties per game and his strict nature likely pushes the booking markets toward the over.
Key Note
Runs 21% above league average on cards. awards penalties at 0.29/game.
Weather & Field
Good Conditions
26C
Temperature
25.8°C
Rain Chance
0%
Wind
6 km/h
Humidity
34%
Conditions will be sunny with a warm 26C temperature at kickoff, which typically favors the more technical side, yet the dry pitch may slow transition play. With very light winds at 6km/h, ball flight for long-range passers like Christian Eriksen will be unaffected, suggesting standard goal and corner production.
Insider Intel