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Cerro vs Penarol - 1X2 Stats & Probability Analysis

Win Draw Win Probability Models & Match Outcome Analysis

Uruguay

Uruguay

Primera División - Apertura

Cerro

L
W
L
L
L
L

vs

07 Jun 2026

18:00 (UTC+0)

Penarol

L
L
W
D
W
W

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds & Probability

Fulltime

Home

5.80
-

Draw

3.67
-

Away

1.54
-

1st Half

Home

6.16
-

Draw

2.12
-

Away

2.11
-

2nd Half

Home

5.58
-

Draw

2.40
-

Away

1.93
-

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MATCH EVIDENCE

Form & Performance

Uruguay

Primera División - Apertura

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

33%

67%

50%

67%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

17%

58%

58%

83%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

32%

50%

55%

70%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

26%

65%

55%

73%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

29%

64%

50%

75%

Home only

Away only

Total Goals

average per game

Uruguay

Primera División - Apertura

Poor
Attack
Good
Poor
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-1.83
0.5
2.33

Scored

Conceded

1.33
1

Difference

+0.33

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.17
0.67
0.5

Scored

Conceded

1
1.5

Difference

-0.5

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-1.5
0.62
2.12

Scored

Conceded

1.25
1.12

Difference

+0.12

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

-1.15
0.55
1.7

Scored

Conceded

1.45
0.9

Difference

+0.55

Season

Full season averages

Difference

-1.11
0.56
1.67

Scored

Conceded

1.5
1

Difference

+0.5

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Home vs Away Strength

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Total Goals

average per game

Uruguay

Primera División - Apertura

Poor
Attack
Good
Poor
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-1.83
0.5
2.33

Scored

Conceded

1.33
1

Difference

+0.33

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+0.17
0.67
0.5

Scored

Conceded

1
1.5

Difference

-0.5

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-1.5
0.62
2.12

Scored

Conceded

1.25
1.12

Difference

+0.12

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

-1.15
0.55
1.7

Scored

Conceded

1.45
0.9

Difference

+0.55

Season

Full season averages

Difference

-1.11
0.56
1.67

Scored

Conceded

1.5
1

Difference

+0.5

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Form & Performance

Uruguay

Primera División - Apertura

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

33%

67%

50%

67%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

17%

58%

58%

83%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

32%

50%

55%

70%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

26%

65%

55%

73%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

29%

64%

50%

75%

Home only

Away only

Home vs Away Strength

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HEAD TO HEAD

Head to Head

Last 365 days

3 Matches

(33%)

1

Wins

Draws: 0

2

(67%)

1

(33%)

2

(67%)

Avg Goals per Match

1
1.67

Scored

Conceded

1.67
1

Cerro

Penarol

All Matches

25 Matches

(20%)

5

Wins

Draws: 4

16

(64%)

5

(20%)

4

(16%)

16

(64%)

Avg Goals per Match

0.8
2.08

Scored

Conceded

2.08
0.8

Cerro

Penarol

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

21 Mar 26

Penarol

3
1

Cerro

3mo ago

Uruguay | Primera División - Clausura

25 Oct 25

Cerro

2
0

Penarol

7mo ago

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

28 Jun 25

Penarol

2
0

Cerro

11mo ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05
23/05

Home

1:0

24/05

25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05

Away

2:0

29/05

30/05
31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06
06/06

Home

?

07/06

08/06
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
13/06
14/06

Head to Head

Last 365 days

3 Matches

(33%)

1

Wins

Draws: 0

2

(67%)

1

(33%)

2

(67%)

Avg Goals per Match

1
1.67

Scored

Conceded

1.67
1

Cerro

Penarol

All Matches

25 Matches

(20%)

5

Wins

Draws: 4

16

(64%)

5

(20%)

4

(16%)

16

(64%)

Avg Goals per Match

0.8
2.08

Scored

Conceded

2.08
0.8

Cerro

Penarol

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

21 Mar 26

Penarol

3
1

Cerro

3mo ago

Uruguay | Primera División - Clausura

25 Oct 25

Cerro

2
0

Penarol

7mo ago

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

28 Jun 25

Penarol

2
0

Cerro

11mo ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05
23/05

Home

1:0

24/05

25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05

Away

2:0

29/05

30/05
31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06
06/06

Home

?

07/06

08/06
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
13/06
14/06

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Competition

Period

Side

FT/HT

MATCH EVIDENCE

Goals History

Cerro

Penarol

Last Matches (1X2)

Fulltime

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

07/06

18:00

Cerro
Penarol

H

5.80

D

3.67

A

1.54

?
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

29/05

22:30

Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0

H

2.15

D

2.98

A

3.44

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

24/05

13:00

Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0

H

2.64

D

2.93

A

2.71

W
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

16/05

15:00

Boston River
Cerro
4
1

H

2.05

D

3.06

A

3.59

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

10/05

22:30

Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0

H

1.34

D

4.57

A

7.85

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

02/05

18:30

Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1

H

3.38

D

3.12

A

2.09

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

26/04

13:00

Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1

H

2.09

D

3.03

A

3.47

L
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Cerro

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

07/06

18:00

Cerro
Penarol

H

5.80

D

3.67

A

1.54

?
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

29/05

22:30

Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0

H

2.15

D

2.98

A

3.44

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

24/05

13:00

Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0

H

2.64

D

2.93

A

2.71

W
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

16/05

15:00

Boston River
Cerro
4
1

H

2.05

D

3.06

A

3.59

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

10/05

22:30

Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0

H

1.34

D

4.57

A

7.85

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

02/05

18:30

Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1

H

3.38

D

3.12

A

2.09

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

26/04

13:00

Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1

H

2.09

D

3.03

A

3.47

L
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Penarol

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

07/06

18:00

Cerro
Penarol

H

5.80

D

3.67

A

1.54

?
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

01/06

23:00

Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1

H

1.45

D

4.07

A

6.38

L
World

World | CONMEBOL Libertadores

FT

28/05

00:30

Penarol
Santa Fe
0
1

H

1.67

D

3.54

A

5.55

L
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

24/05

21:30

Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2

H

3.24

D

3.11

A

2.18

W
World

World | CONMEBOL Libertadores

FT

22/05

00:30

Penarol
Corinthians
1
1

H

2.42

D

2.86

A

3.30

D
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

16/05

21:30

Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1

H

1.81

D

3.31

A

4.25

W
Uruguay

Uruguay | Primera División - Apertura

FT

11/05

23:30

Cerro Largo
Penarol
2
3

H

4.18

D

3.35

A

1.80

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Lineups

Previous Match Lineup

Avg Changes: 3.11 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

33

Tiago Rijo

-
-

28

Augusto Cambón

-
-

Midfielders

5

Alejo Macelli

-
-

31

Jairo Amaro

-
-

77

Matías Ocampo

-
-

27

Cristian Barros

-
-

10

Brahian Alemán

-
-

Defenders

22

Damián Suárez

-
-

3

Ariel Lima

-
-

17

Gianni Rodríguez

-
-

Goalkeepers

12

Yonatan Irrazábal

-
-

Cerro

Previous Match Lineup

Avg Changes: 3.11 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

33

Tiago Rijo

-
-

28

Augusto Cambón

-
-

Midfielders

5

Alejo Macelli

-
-

31

Jairo Amaro

-
-

77

Matías Ocampo

-
-

27

Cristian Barros

-
-

10

Brahian Alemán

-
-

Defenders

22

Damián Suárez

-
-

3

Ariel Lima

-
-

17

Gianni Rodríguez

-
-

Goalkeepers

12

Yonatan Irrazábal

-
-

Penarol

Previous Match Lineup

Avg Changes: 3.78 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Player Rotation Legend

L

Low

M

Medium

H

High

-

Unknown

  • Low: Regular starter with stable minutes
  • Medium: Plays regularly but role/minutes vary
  • High: Unpredictable role, often rotated or benched.

Overall Form

32%
Overall Form
46%
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
3
6
Losses
4

Rankings

Current Season

16
Primera: Tabla Anual
3
18
Played
18
0.72
Points per Match
1.83
14
Primera: Promedios
1
55
Played
55
1.07
Points per Match
2.02
7
Primera: Torneo Intermedio
2
3
Played
3
1
Points per Match
2
16
Primera: Apertura
4
15
Played
15
0.67
Points per Match
1.8

Quality

31%
Team Quality
50%
50%
Avg Opponent Quality
55%

Goals Performance

28%
Goals Performance
44%
0.6
Scored Goals
1
1.9
Conceded Goals
1.1
-1.3
Goals Difference
(Scored - Conceded)
-0.1
2.5
Total Goals
(Scored + Conceded)
2.1

Average Goals per Match

vs

Statistics

Average Statistics per Game

-
Expected Goals
Missing Data (10 | 6)
0.6
-
Total Shots
13.75
-
Shots on Goal
3.25
-
Shots Inside Box
6.25
-
Shots Outside Box
7.5
-
Possession
40%
-
Passes %
61%

Some data is missing for recent matches.

(Home: 10 | Away: 6)

We're working to fill in the gaps!

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds Movement

All odds shown are the average odds from all bookmakers in our system.

Home

5.80

Draw

3.67

Away

1.54

5.60

Home

5.80

3.63

Draw

3.86

1.52

Away

1.57

Max

Home

5.80

Draw

3.86

Away

1.57

%

4%
6%
3%

Min

Home

5.60

Draw

3.63

Away

1.52

NOTE: Odds are updated every 3 hours.

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