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Away Favored
Jun 6, 2026, 02:01 AM
16+ Portals
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A high-stakes World Cup dress rehearsal at Soldier Field as co-hosts USA test their mettle against a revitalized Germany squad. The visitors arrive on a devastating eight-game winning streak, looking to finalize their status as tournament favorites.
Home Motivation
Low
The USA's motivation is low as this is an international friendly with no competition stakes. It serves as a final preparation for the upcoming World Cup, allowing the team to assess players and tactics.
Away Motivation
Low
Germany's motivation is low as this is an international friendly match. The team is using it as a final warm-up before the World Cup to ensure players are fit and tactics are refined.
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The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
2.04
Goals Scored Per Game
All comps (EWMA)
2.56
Germany is more clinical, trending at 2.56 goals in recent form compared to 2.04 for the USA.
58%
Possession %
All comps (EWMA)
71%
The visitors dominate the ball, with a 71% recent-form average that is significantly higher than the USA's 58%.
4.01
Shots on Target Against
All comps (EWMA)
2.69
Germany's defense is more insulated, conceding only 2.69 shots on target per game in recent form.
4.61
Corners Won Per Game
All comps (EWMA)
6.18
Germany wins significantly more corners, averaging 6.18 per game on a recent-form basis.
50%
Win Rate (Last 10)
Last 10 matches
80%
Germany has won 8 of their last 10 matches, while the USA has won only 5 in the same period.
10%
Clean Sheet %
Last 10 matches
50%
Germany has kept five clean sheets in their last 10, whereas the USA has managed only one.
Form & Streaks
Germany is on a dominant run, winning 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions (8W, 0D, 2L).
USA has struggled to shut teams out at home, recording only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 matches (10%).
USA matches are consistently high-scoring, with 6 of their last 10 home games exceeding 2.5 goals.
Tactical Overview
Recent form points to a significant gulf in efficiency, with Germany winning 8 of their last 10 matches while the USA has lost 4 over the same span. The German machine is trending at a 71% possession rate in recent matches, a dominant figure that will force the American midfield led by Weston McKennie and Sebastian Berhalter into a defensive shell. While USA showed attacking flair in their 3-2 win over Senegal, their defensive structure remains a concern, conceding nearly double the goals of their opponents on a recent-form basis (1.11 vs 0.57). The absence of Chris Richards in the heart of defense leaves Tim Ream with the daunting task of containing Deniz Undav and the creative surges of Jamal Musiala. Despite the home advantage, USA has kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their last 10 matches at home, suggesting Florian Wirtz and Leon Goretzka will find plenty of opportunities.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
For the USA, Christian Pulisic is a crucial attacking threat, known for his ability to create and finish chances. Midfielder Weston McKennie provides significant influence in the midfield, connecting defense and attack with his strong work rate and passing. In defense, Tim Ream brings experience and leadership to the backline.
Absences
Chris Richards
left ankle ligament damage
Home
Key Players
For the USA, Christian Pulisic is a crucial attacking threat, known for his ability to create and finish chances. Midfielder Weston McKennie provides significant influence in the midfield, connecting defense and attack with his strong work rate and passing. In defense, Tim Ream brings experience and leadership to the backline.
Absences
Chris Richards
left ankle ligament damage
Away
Key Players
Germany will rely on the creative prowess of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz in the attacking midfield, both capable of unlocking defenses. In defense, Jonathan Tah is a key figure, providing solidity and leadership. Upfront, Deniz Undav is in good form and expected to lead the line.
Absences
L. Karl
torn muscle bundle
M. Neuer
calf injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Insider Intel