Odds & Probability
Asian Handicap model probabilities vs. market oddsAsian Handicap Odds
Asian Handicap
Walk the full handicap ladder with cover probabilities and fair vs market odds on every line.
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Handicap Trends
Goal-difference distribution per teamHandicaps Goals
Current season
FK Liepaja
16 Games
Super Nova
16 Games
+2
2 (13%)
4 (25%)
+1
4 (25%)
4 (25%)
0
2 (13%)
3 (19%)
-1
5 (31%)
2 (13%)
-2
1 (6%)
3 (19%)
Other
2 (13%)
Last 20 · Home vs Away
FK Liepaja
20 Games · At home
Super Nova
20 Games · Away
2 (10%)
+2
1 (5%)
5 (25%)
+1
1 (5%)
6 (30%)
0
8 (40%)
3 (15%)
-1
4 (20%)
-2
2 (10%)
4 (20%)
Other
4 (20%)
H2H · Handicaps
Last 365 days
4 matches50%
FK Liepaja2/4
0%
Draw0/4
50%
Super Nova2/4
1+2
1+1
2-3
Match history
- Apr 23·
Virsligalast mo.Super Nova1 - 2
FK Liepaja+1W - Nov 09, 2025·Virsliga7mo agoSuper Nova3 - 0FK Liepaja-3W
- Aug 25, 2025·Virsliga9mo agoFK Liepaja0 - 3Super Nova-3W
All
13 matches69%
FK Liepaja9/13
15%
Draw2/13
15%
Super Nova2/13
1+4
6+2
2+1
20
2-3
Match history
- Apr 23·Virsligalast mo.Super Nova1 - 2FK Liepaja+1W
- Nov 09, 2025·Virsliga7mo agoSuper Nova3 - 0FK Liepaja-3W
- Aug 25, 2025·Virsliga9mo agoFK Liepaja0 - 3Super Nova-3W
Handicap Trends
Margin engine · last matches · cover rates · filtered by params aboveGoals Performance · Handicaps
Avg margin
overall
+3+1-20+3
0.0
Match
FK Liepaja
Avg margin
overall
0+2+2-3-1
-0.4
Match
Super Nova
0
Median margin
-120%
Big winswon by ≥2
20%20%
Big losses↓lost by ≥2
20%60%
Tight gamesmargin ≤ 1
60%-0.20
xG margin
-0.46Avg xG-for minus xG-against per game — the deserve-rate version of margin.
2.24
Margin variance↓σ — lower is more consistent
1.56How spread out a team's margins are. ≤1.5 reliable, ≤2.2 moderate, >2.2 swing risk.
FK Liepaja is a 0.0 margin engine with high variance — swing risk.
Super Nova is a -0.4 margin engine with moderate variance — covers but volatile.
Last Matches
Cover at -1.5last 10 matches
FK Liepaja
20%2/10
avg margin 0Super Nova
20%2/10
avg margin -0.4MatchCover
Jun 12·Virsliga
This matchVirsligaFK LiepajaSuper Nova-1.5—+1.5—
May 30·Virsliga
12d agoVirsligaFK Liepaja
Tukums30
-1.52.67+1.51.41
W
May 26·Virsliga
16d agoVirsliga
FS JelgavaFK Liepaja11
+1.51.23-1.53.57
L
May 22·Virsliga
20d agoVirsliga
AudaFK Liepaja31
+1.51.06-1.56.83
L
May 17·Virsliga
25d agoVirsligaFK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils21
-1.52.70+1.51.39
L
May 12·Virsliga
last mo.VirsligaFK Liepaja
Ogre United41
-1.51.95+1.51.77
W
May 08·Virsliga
last mo.Virsliga
Rīgas FSFK Liepaja50
+1.5—-1.5—
L
Jun 12·Virsliga
This matchVirsligaFK LiepajaSuper Nova+1.5—-1.5—
May 29·Virsliga
13d agoVirsligaSuper NovaRīgas FS12
-1.5—+1.5—
L
May 24·Virsliga
18d agoVirsliga
RigaSuper Nova30
+1.5—-1.5—
L
May 20·Virsliga
22d agoVirsliga
GrobiņaSuper Nova02
+1.51.10-1.55.65
W
May 16·Virsliga
26d agoVirsligaSuper NovaOgre United31
-1.52.86+1.51.36
W
May 11·Virsliga
last mo.VirsligaSuper NovaTukums11
-1.56.27+1.51.08
L
May 06·Virsliga
last mo.VirsligaFS JelgavaSuper Nova10
+1.51.09-1.55.80
L
FK Liepaja · Last 11
Jun 12·Virsliga
This matchVirsligaFK LiepajaSuper Nova-1.5—+1.5—
May 30·Virsliga
12d agoVirsligaFK LiepajaTukums30
-1.52.67+1.51.41
W
May 26·Virsliga
16d agoVirsligaFS JelgavaFK Liepaja11
+1.51.23-1.53.57
L
May 22·Virsliga
20d agoVirsligaAudaFK Liepaja31
+1.51.06-1.56.83
L
May 17·Virsliga
25d agoVirsligaFK LiepajaBFC Daugavpils21
-1.52.70+1.51.39
L
May 12·Virsliga
last mo.VirsligaFK LiepajaOgre United41
-1.51.95+1.51.77
W
May 08·Virsliga
last mo.VirsligaRīgas FSFK Liepaja50
+1.5—-1.5—
L
Super Nova · Last 11
Jun 12·Virsliga
This matchVirsligaFK LiepajaSuper Nova+1.5—-1.5—
May 29·Virsliga
13d agoVirsligaSuper NovaRīgas FS12
-1.5—+1.5—
L
May 24·Virsliga
18d agoVirsligaRigaSuper Nova30
+1.5—-1.5—
L
May 20·Virsliga
22d agoVirsligaGrobiņaSuper Nova02
+1.51.10-1.55.65
W
May 16·Virsliga
26d agoVirsligaSuper NovaOgre United31
-1.52.86+1.51.36
W
May 11·Virsliga
last mo.VirsligaSuper NovaTukums11
-1.56.27+1.51.08
L
May 06·Virsliga
last mo.VirsligaFS JelgavaSuper Nova10
+1.51.09-1.55.80
L
Historical Math Probability
Historical Probability
Compare implied odds against real historical win rates to spot where the market misprices outcomes.
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