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FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka - 1X2 Stats & Probability Analysis

Win Draw Win Probability Models & Match Outcome Analysis

Japan

Japan

J1 League

FC Tokyo

D
L
D
W
L
W

06 Jun 2026

05:00 (UTC+0)

(0
-
3)

1

-

3

FT

Cerezo Osaka

D
W
W
W
D
D

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds & Probability

Fulltime

Home

1.91
-

Draw

3.58
-

Away

3.72
-

1st Half

Home

2.44
-

Draw

2.25
-

Away

4.11
-

2nd Half

Home

2.24
-

Draw

2.57
-

Away

3.72
-

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MATCH EVIDENCE

Form & Performance

Japan

J1 League

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

43%

83%

67%

77%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

55%

78%

75%

55%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

68%

73%

60%

53%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

68%

54%

57%

51%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

69%

57%

61%

59%

Home only

Away only

Total Goals

average per match

Japan

J1 League

Good
Attack
Excellent
Good
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.17
1
1.17

Scored

Conceded

2.67
1.5

Difference

+1.17

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+1
2
1

Scored

Conceded

2.67
1.17

Difference

+1.5

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

+0.5
1.5
1

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.25

Difference

+0.62

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.6
1.55
0.95

Scored

Conceded

1.45
1.2

Difference

+0.25

Season

Full season averages

Difference

+0.63
1.58
0.95

Scored

Conceded

1.47
1.11

Difference

+0.37

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Home vs Away Strength

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Total Goals

average per match

Japan

J1 League

Good
Attack
Excellent
Good
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.17
1
1.17

Scored

Conceded

2.67
1.5

Difference

+1.17

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

+1
2
1

Scored

Conceded

2.67
1.17

Difference

+1.5

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

+0.5
1.5
1

Scored

Conceded

1.88
1.25

Difference

+0.62

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

+0.6
1.55
0.95

Scored

Conceded

1.45
1.2

Difference

+0.25

Season

Full season averages

Difference

+0.63
1.58
0.95

Scored

Conceded

1.47
1.11

Difference

+0.37

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Form & Performance

Japan

J1 League

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

43%

83%

67%

77%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

55%

78%

75%

55%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

68%

73%

60%

53%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

68%

54%

57%

51%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

69%

57%

61%

59%

Home only

Away only

Home vs Away Strength

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HEAD TO HEAD

Head to Head

Last 365 days

3 Matches

(33%)

1

Wins

Draws: 2

0

(0%)

1

(33%)

2

(67%)

Avg Goals per Match

2
1.67

Scored

Conceded

1.67
2

FC Tokyo

Cerezo Osaka

All Matches

31 Matches

(35%)

11

Wins

Draws: 10

10

(32%)

11

(35%)

10

(32%)

10

(32%)

Avg Goals per Match

1.32
1.06

Scored

Conceded

1.06
1.32

FC Tokyo

Cerezo Osaka

Japan | J1 League

30 May 26

Cerezo Osaka

2
2

FC Tokyo

7d ago

Japan | Emperor Cup

06 Aug 25

FC Tokyo

2
1

Cerezo Osaka

10mo ago

Japan | J1 League

14 Jun 25

FC Tokyo

2
2

Cerezo Osaka

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05

Away

1:0

23/05

24/05
25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05

Away

2:2

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06

Home

1:3

06/06

07/06
08/06
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
13/06
14/06

Head to Head

Last 365 days

3 Matches

(33%)

1

Wins

Draws: 2

0

(0%)

1

(33%)

2

(67%)

Avg Goals per Match

2
1.67

Scored

Conceded

1.67
2

FC Tokyo

Cerezo Osaka

All Matches

31 Matches

(35%)

11

Wins

Draws: 10

10

(32%)

11

(35%)

10

(32%)

10

(32%)

Avg Goals per Match

1.32
1.06

Scored

Conceded

1.06
1.32

FC Tokyo

Cerezo Osaka

Japan | J1 League

30 May 26

Cerezo Osaka

2
2

FC Tokyo

7d ago

Japan | Emperor Cup

06 Aug 25

FC Tokyo

2
1

Cerezo Osaka

10mo ago

Japan | J1 League

14 Jun 25

FC Tokyo

2
2

Cerezo Osaka

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05

Away

1:0

23/05

24/05
25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05

Away

2:2

30/05

31/05
01/06
02/06
03/06
04/06
05/06

Home

1:3

06/06

07/06
08/06
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
13/06
14/06

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Competition

Period

Side

FT/HT

MATCH EVIDENCE

Goals History

FC Tokyo

Cerezo Osaka

Last Matches (1X2)

Fulltime

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/06

05:00

FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
3

H

1.91

D

3.58

A

3.72

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

30/05

06:00

Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

23/05

08:30

Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0

H

2.45

D

3.18

A

2.85

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

16/05

07:00

Urawa
FC Tokyo
0
0

H

2.80

D

3.14

A

2.50

D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

10/05

06:00

FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1

H

1.84

D

3.28

A

4.43

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/05

06:00

FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3

H

1.42

D

4.44

A

7.04

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

02/05

05:00

FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0

H

1.89

D

3.55

A

3.79

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

FC Tokyo

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/06

05:00

FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
3

H

1.91

D

3.58

A

3.72

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

30/05

06:00

Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

23/05

08:30

Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0

H

2.45

D

3.18

A

2.85

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

16/05

07:00

Urawa
FC Tokyo
0
0

H

2.80

D

3.14

A

2.50

D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

10/05

06:00

FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1

H

1.84

D

3.28

A

4.43

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/05

06:00

FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3

H

1.42

D

4.44

A

7.04

L
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

02/05

05:00

FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0

H

1.89

D

3.55

A

3.79

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Cerezo Osaka

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

06/06

05:00

FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
3

H

1.91

D

3.58

A

3.72

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

30/05

06:00

Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

24/05

03:55

Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3

H

2.77

D

3.29

A

2.46

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

17/05

06:00

Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1

H

2.32

D

3.42

A

2.85

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

FT

09/05

07:00

Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2

H

1.88

D

3.62

A

3.79

W
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

06/05

04:03

Shimizu S-pulse
Cerezo Osaka
1
1

H

2.62

D

3.27

A

2.59

D
Japan

Japan | J1 League

PN

03/05

06:00

Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1

H

1.77

D

3.64

A

4.30

D
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Lineups

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 1.89 per match

Low Team Rotation!
Rare lineup changes boost chemistry but may cause fatigue

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

9

Marcelo Ryan

6.2
L

23

Ryunosuke Sato

9.6
L

Midfielders

16

Kein Sato

6.7
L

37

Kei Koizumi

6.7
H

27

Kyota Tokiwa

6.2
L

22

Keita Endo

7.2
M

Defenders

2

Sei Muroya

6.2
L

24

Alexander Scholz

7
L

17

Hayato Inamura

6.9
L

42

Kento Hashimoto

5.3
M

Goalkeepers

1

Hayate Tanaka

6.2
H

FC Tokyo

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 1.89 per match

Low Team Rotation!
Rare lineup changes boost chemistry but may cause fatigue

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

9

Marcelo Ryan

6.2
L

23

Ryunosuke Sato

9.6
L

Midfielders

16

Kein Sato

6.7
L

37

Kei Koizumi

6.7
H

27

Kyota Tokiwa

6.2
L

22

Keita Endo

7.2
M

Defenders

2

Sei Muroya

6.2
L

24

Alexander Scholz

7
L

17

Hayato Inamura

6.9
L

42

Kento Hashimoto

5.3
M

Goalkeepers

1

Hayate Tanaka

6.2
H

Cerezo Osaka

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 3.67 per match

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

9

Solomon Sakuragawa

8.2
H

Midfielders

13

Motohiko Nakajima

6.3
M

10

Shunta Tanaka

6.9
L

48

Masaya Shibayama

7.9
L

8

Shinji Kagawa

7.2
H

19

Shion Homma

7.5
H

Defenders

27

Dion Cools

7.6
M

4

Rikito Inoue

7.2
M

44

Shinnosuke Hatanaka

6.6
L

6

Kyohei Noborizato

6.9
H

Goalkeepers

23

Kosuke Nakamura

7.3
M

Player Rotation Legend

L

Low

M

Medium

H

High

-

Unknown

  • Low: Regular starter with stable minutes
  • Medium: Plays regularly but role/minutes vary
  • High: Unpredictable role, often rotated or benched.

Overall Form

68%
Overall Form
76%
5
Wins
5
3
Draws
4
2
Losses
1

Rankings

Current Season

2
East
2
18
Played
18
2.06
Points per Match
1.72

Quality

67%
Team Quality
67%
54%
Avg Opponent Quality
57%

Goals Performance

58%
Goals Performance
63%
1.7
Scored Goals
2.1
1.1
Conceded Goals
1.1
0.6
Goals Difference
(Scored - Conceded)
1
2.8
Total Goals
(Scored + Conceded)
3.2

Average Goals per Match

vs

Statistics

Average Statistics per Game

2.21
Expected Goals
Missing Data (5 | 3)
1.7
15.5
Total Shots
11.8
5.6
Shots on Goal
4.9
10.7
Shots Inside Box
7.5
4.8
Shots Outside Box
4.3
51%
Possession
51%
81%
Passes %
79%

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds Movement

All odds shown are the average odds from all bookmakers in our system.

Home

1.91

Draw

3.58

Away

3.72

1.86

Home

1.91

3.56

Draw

3.61

3.72

Away

3.90

Max

Home

1.91

Draw

3.61

Away

3.90

%

3%
1%
5%

Min

Home

1.86

Draw

3.56

Away

3.72

NOTE: Odds are updated every 3 hours.

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