Odds & Probability
Asian Handicap model probabilities vs. market oddsAsian Handicap Odds
Asian Handicap
Walk the full handicap ladder with cover probabilities and fair vs market odds on every line.
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Handicap Trends
Goal-difference distribution per teamHandicaps Goals
Current season
Lithuania
3 Games
Estonia
3 Games
+2
1 (33%)
+1
1 (33%)
2 (67%)
0
1 (33%)
1 (33%)
Other
Last 20 · Home vs Away
Lithuania
20 Games · At home
Estonia
20 Games · Away
+2
3 (15%)
1 (5%)
+1
2 (10%)
10 (50%)
0
4 (20%)
4 (20%)
-1
3 (15%)
4 (20%)
-2
4 (20%)
1 (5%)
Other
4 (20%)
H2H · Handicaps
Last 365 days
No matchesNo results in this window.
All
3 matches0%
Lithuania0/3
33%
Draw1/3
67%
Estonia2/3
10
1-1
1-2
Match history
- Jun 11, 2024·
Baltic Cup2y agoLithuania1 - 1
Estonia0D - Nov 19, 2022·Baltic Cup3y agoEstonia2 - 0Lithuania-2W
- Jun 01, 2021·Baltic Cup5y agoLithuania0 - 1Estonia-1W
Handicap Trends
Margin engine · last matches · cover rates · filtered by params aboveGoals Performance · Handicaps
Avg margin
overall
0-4+2-20
-1.3
Match
Lithuania
Avg margin
overall
-3+20-2+1
-1.0
Match
Estonia
-1
Median margin
010%
Big winswon by ≥2
10%40%
Big losses↓lost by ≥2
40%50%
Tight gamesmargin ≤ 1
50%-0.43
xG margin
-1.73Avg xG-for minus xG-against per game — the deserve-rate version of margin.
1.95
Margin variance↓σ — lower is more consistent
1.95How spread out a team's margins are. ≤1.5 reliable, ≤2.2 moderate, >2.2 swing risk.
Lithuania is a -1.3 margin engine with moderate variance — covers but volatile.
Estonia is a -1.0 margin engine with moderate variance — covers but volatile.
Last Matches
Cover at -1.5last 10 matches
Lithuania
10%1/10
avg margin -1.3Estonia
10%1/10
avg margin -1MatchCover
Jun 09·Baltic Cup
This matchBaltic CupLithuaniaEstonia-1.51.15+1.54.67
Jun 06·Baltic Cup
5d agoBaltic CupLithuania
Latvia11
-1.54.60+1.51.15
L
Mar 29·Friendlies
2mo agoFriendliesLithuania
Georgia02
-1.510.75+1.51.02
L
Mar 26·Friendlies
2mo agoFriendlies
MoldovaLithuania02
+1.51.10-1.55.72
W
Nov 17, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
6mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
NetherlandsLithuania40
+1.5—-1.5—
L
Nov 13, 2025·Friendlies
7mo agoFriendliesLithuania
Israel00
-1.511.75+1.51.02
L
Oct 12, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
8mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeLithuania
Poland02
-1.516.00+1.51.01
L
Jun 09·Baltic Cup
This matchBaltic CupLithuaniaEstonia+1.57.20-1.51.03
Jun 06·Baltic Cup
5d agoBaltic CupEstonia
Faroe Islands10
-1.55.13+1.51.12
L
Mar 30·FIFA Series
2mo agoFIFA Series
RwandaEstonia20
+1.51.04-1.59.20
L
Mar 27·FIFA Series
2mo agoFIFA Series
KenyaEstonia11
+1.51.06-1.57.38
L
Nov 18, 2025·Friendlies
6mo agoFriendlies
CyprusEstonia24
+1.51.03-1.59.40
W
Nov 13, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
7mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
NorwayEstonia41
+1.5—-1.5—
L
Oct 14, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
8mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeEstoniaMoldova11
-1.54.33+1.51.18
L
Lithuania · Last 11
Jun 09·Baltic Cup
This matchBaltic CupLithuaniaEstonia-1.51.15+1.54.67
Jun 06·Baltic Cup
5d agoBaltic CupLithuaniaLatvia11
-1.54.60+1.51.15
L
Mar 29·Friendlies
2mo agoFriendliesLithuaniaGeorgia02
-1.510.75+1.51.02
L
Mar 26·Friendlies
2mo agoFriendliesMoldovaLithuania02
+1.51.10-1.55.72
W
Nov 17, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
6mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeNetherlandsLithuania40
+1.5—-1.5—
L
Nov 13, 2025·Friendlies
7mo agoFriendliesLithuaniaIsrael00
-1.511.75+1.51.02
L
Oct 12, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
8mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeLithuaniaPoland02
-1.516.00+1.51.01
L
Estonia · Last 11
Jun 09·Baltic Cup
This matchBaltic CupLithuaniaEstonia+1.57.20-1.51.03
Jun 06·Baltic Cup
5d agoBaltic CupEstoniaFaroe Islands10
-1.55.13+1.51.12
L
Mar 30·FIFA Series
2mo agoFIFA SeriesRwandaEstonia20
+1.51.04-1.59.20
L
Mar 27·FIFA Series
2mo agoFIFA SeriesKenyaEstonia11
+1.51.06-1.57.38
L
Nov 18, 2025·Friendlies
6mo agoFriendliesCyprusEstonia24
+1.51.03-1.59.40
W
Nov 13, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
7mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeNorwayEstonia41
+1.5—-1.5—
L
Oct 14, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
8mo agoWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeEstoniaMoldova11
-1.54.33+1.51.18
L
Historical Math Probability
Historical Probability
Compare implied odds against real historical win rates to spot where the market misprices outcomes.
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