Odds & Probability
Card lines, odds and model probabilitiesCards
Cards · Odds & Probability
Compare card-count model probabilities against bookmaker odds, with referee context.
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Head to Head
Card counts and per-team averages in past meetingsH2H · Cards
Last 365 days
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All
Across all past meetings
Card statistics not recorded for these matches.
Match history
- Jun 11, 2024·
Baltic Cup2y agoLithuania1 - 1
Estonia - Nov 19, 2022·Baltic Cup3y agoEstonia2 - 0Lithuania
- Jun 01, 2021·Baltic Cup5y agoLithuania0 - 1Estonia
Recent Matches
Yellow + red card counts per fixture · filtered by params aboveLast Matches
Lithuania
Over 4.5 · Last 7Estonia
60% Under40% Over
Lithuania: 29%Estonia: 50%
Avg Cards4.7
Volatility±3.6Wild
Home Avg2.7
Away Avg2.5
Line ladder
MatchOddsCardsW/L
Lithuania · Last 11
Jun 09·Baltic CupUpcoming
Lithuania
Estonia
—
––
–
Jun 06·Baltic Cup
Lithuania1
Latvia1
—
––
–
Mar 29·Friendlies
Lithuania0
Georgia2
3.00
––
–
Mar 26·Friendlies
Moldova0
Lithuania2
—
––
–
Nov 17, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
Netherlands4
Lithuania0
4.88
022
L
Nov 13, 2025·Friendlies
Lithuania0
Israel0
—
235
W
Oct 12, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
Lithuania0
Poland2
1.96
224
L
Estonia · Last 11
Jun 09·Baltic CupUpcoming
Lithuania
Estonia
—
––
–
Jun 06·Baltic Cup
Estonia1
Faroe Islands0
—
––
–
Mar 30·FIFA Series
Rwanda2
Estonia0
—
––
–
Mar 27·FIFA Series
Kenya1
Estonia1
—
––
–
Nov 18, 2025·Friendlies
Cyprus2
Estonia4
—
––
–
Nov 13, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
Norway4
Estonia1
5.52
000
L
Oct 14, 2025·World Cup - Qualification Europe
Estonia1
Moldova1
—
235
W
Cards Statistics
Per-team averages across the selected windowCards Statistics
Combined weighted avg per match
4.8cards
vs lines:3.5+1.34.5+0.35.5-0.76.5-1.7
Home5.3
Away4.3
Cards
Per team · weighted avg per match (Y + 2·R)5.3
Total Cards
4.32.4
Cards Picked Up
2.12.9
Cards Drawn
1.9Yellow & Red
Breakdown · per team · avg per match4
Yellow CardsHeavy
3.62.1
Yellow Picked Up
21.9
Yellow Drawn
1.60.4
Red CardsHeavy
00.3
Red Picked Up
00.1
Red Drawn
0Fouls
Supporting context · per team · avg per match27.6
Total FoulsHeavy
24.414.4
Fouls Committed
1513.1
Fouls Drawn
9.4Based on 7/10 matches with card data
Odds Analysis
Movement, probability and accuracyHistorical Math Probability
Historical Probability
Compare implied odds against real historical win rates to spot where the market misprices outcomes.
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Winning Odds
Winning Odds Analysis
See how often bookmaker favorites actually win — broken down by odds range with profit tracking.
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Bookmaker Accuracy
Bookmaker Accuracy
Track how often the bookmaker's top-rated selections actually win and measure their statistical reliability.
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