Odds & Probability
Asian Handicap model probabilities vs. market oddsAsian Handicap Odds
Asian Handicap
Walk the full handicap ladder with cover probabilities and fair vs market odds on every line.
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Handicap Trends
Goal-difference distribution per teamHandicaps Goals
Current season
Elva
14 Games
Maardu
13 Games
3 (21%)
+2
2 (14%)
+1
3 (23%)
2 (14%)
0
4 (31%)
3 (21%)
-1
2 (15%)
3 (21%)
-2
1 (7%)
Other
4 (31%)
Last 20 · Home vs Away
Elva
20 Games · At home
Maardu
20 Games · Away
5 (25%)
+2
2 (10%)
5 (25%)
+1
5 (25%)
2 (10%)
0
5 (25%)
2 (10%)
-1
2 (10%)
4 (20%)
-2
1 (5%)
2 (10%)
Other
5 (25%)
H2H · Handicaps
Last 365 days
1 match100%
Elva1/1
0%
Draw0/1
0%
Maardu0/1
1+3
Match history
- Mar 12·
Esiliiga A3mo agoMaardu0 - 3
Elva+3W
All
16 matches19%
Elva3/16
19%
Draw3/16
63%
Maardu10/16
1+3
2+1
30
4-1
1-2
2-3
1-5
1-6
1-7
Match history
- Mar 12·Esiliiga A3mo agoMaardu0 - 3Elva+3W
- Oct 14, 2021·Esiliiga A4y agoMaardu2 - 1Elva-1W
- Aug 25, 2021·Esiliiga A4y agoElva0 - 1Maardu-1W
Handicap Trends
Margin engine · last matches · cover rates · filtered by params aboveGoals Performance · Handicaps
Avg margin
overall
+2-1+2+2-2
-0.3
Match
Elva
Avg margin
overall
-5+1+1-10
-0.4
Match
Maardu
-1
Median margin
030%
Big winswon by ≥2
0%30%
Big losses↓lost by ≥2
10%40%
Tight gamesmargin ≤ 1
90%-0.45
xG margin
1.22Avg xG-for minus xG-against per game — the deserve-rate version of margin.
1.62
Margin variance↓σ — lower is more consistent
1.69How spread out a team's margins are. ≤1.5 reliable, ≤2.2 moderate, >2.2 swing risk.
Elva is a -0.3 margin engine with moderate variance — covers but volatile.
Maardu is a -0.4 margin engine with moderate variance — covers but volatile.
Last Matches
Cover at -1.5last 10 matches
Elva
30%3/10
avg margin -0.3Maardu
0%0/10
avg margin -0.4MatchCover
Jun 11·Esiliiga A
This matchEsiliiga AElvaMaardu-1.52.45+1.51.45
Jun 01·Esiliiga A
10d agoEsiliiga AElva
Tartu Welco02
-1.57.80+1.51.02
L
May 28·Esiliiga A
14d agoEsiliiga A
FCI Levadia IIElva13
+1.51.15-1.54.62
W
May 24·Esiliiga A
18d agoEsiliiga AElva
Tallinna Kalev31
-1.53.58+1.51.23
W
May 16·Esiliiga A
26d agoEsiliiga A
Nõmme United IIElva10
+1.51.13-1.54.55
L
May 07·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AElva
FC Tallinn20
-1.52.13+1.51.61
W
May 02·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AElva
Nõmme Kalju II24
-1.5—+1.5—
L
Jun 11·Esiliiga A
This matchEsiliiga AElvaMaardu+1.51.04-1.57.45
May 28·Esiliiga A
14d agoEsiliiga AFC TallinnMaardu00
+1.51.28-1.53.23
L
May 24·Esiliiga A
18d agoEsiliiga AMaarduTartu Welco01
-1.58.80+1.51.01
L
May 16·Esiliiga A
26d agoEsiliiga AFCI Levadia IIMaardu12
+1.51.08-1.55.38
L
May 09·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AMaarduNõmme United II21
-1.55.90+1.51.08
L
May 01·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga A
Flora IIMaardu50
+1.51.01-1.59.00
L
Apr 26·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga A
ViimsiMaardu11
+1.51.03-1.58.20
L
Elva · Last 11
Jun 11·Esiliiga A
This matchEsiliiga AElvaMaardu-1.52.45+1.51.45
Jun 01·Esiliiga A
10d agoEsiliiga AElvaTartu Welco02
-1.57.80+1.51.02
L
May 28·Esiliiga A
14d agoEsiliiga AFCI Levadia IIElva13
+1.51.15-1.54.62
W
May 24·Esiliiga A
18d agoEsiliiga AElvaTallinna Kalev31
-1.53.58+1.51.23
W
May 16·Esiliiga A
26d agoEsiliiga ANõmme United IIElva10
+1.51.13-1.54.55
L
May 07·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AElvaFC Tallinn20
-1.52.13+1.51.61
W
May 02·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AElvaNõmme Kalju II24
-1.5—+1.5—
L
Maardu · Last 11
Jun 11·Esiliiga A
This matchEsiliiga AElvaMaardu+1.51.04-1.57.45
May 28·Esiliiga A
14d agoEsiliiga AFC TallinnMaardu00
+1.51.28-1.53.23
L
May 24·Esiliiga A
18d agoEsiliiga AMaarduTartu Welco01
-1.58.80+1.51.01
L
May 16·Esiliiga A
26d agoEsiliiga AFCI Levadia IIMaardu12
+1.51.08-1.55.38
L
May 09·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AMaarduNõmme United II21
-1.55.90+1.51.08
L
May 01·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AFlora IIMaardu50
+1.51.01-1.59.00
L
Apr 26·Esiliiga A
last mo.Esiliiga AViimsiMaardu11
+1.51.03-1.58.20
L
Historical Math Probability
Historical Probability
Compare implied odds against real historical win rates to spot where the market misprices outcomes.
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